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AMSF

AMERISAFEC
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Renewal-supported premium growth could lift earnings if underwriting ratios stabilize. Q2 net premiums earned rose 11.4% despite competitive conditions.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
What can break
Analyst-target coverage is unspecified, and the available estimate-revision report is dated August 20 rather than current.
Momentum
30
Value
59
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $24.00 · Bull $29.00 · Bear $19.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.33
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d +4.6
Value59 · Δ7d -0.7
Sentiment50 · Δ7d -3.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst-target coverage is unspecified, and the available estimate-revision report is dated August 20 rather than current.
  • • Capital returns can reduce investable assets and investment income; no future repurchase pace is established. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
  • • Premium growth did not protect Q2 operating earnings: operating EPS fell 17.0%, underwriting profit fell 37.9%, and the combined ratio deteriorated 3.7 points.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · AMC

Underwriting-margin and reserve-development test

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
30
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.6
Δ21d
+10.2
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
50
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.1
Δ21d
-20.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 30.3 / Value 58.6 / Sentiment 49.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$487.68M
Beta
0.36
Shares Out
18.54M
P/E (TTM)
14.7
P/S (TTM)
2.38
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-16.67
Rev YoY
+13.4%
EPS YoY
+6.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+17.5%
Net Debt
-$61.44M
Current Ratio
0.64
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data