B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AMRC
AmerescoCNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Ameresco has stronger near-term evidence than the prior monitoring view: Q2 execution included record awards, data-center exposure, project commissioning, and a reported adjusted-EPS guidance increase. If awarded backlog converts and the HASI partnership improves financing capacity, the stock can support a moderate rerating.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.0.
What can break
Awarded data-center projects may convert slowly or require more capital than expected.
Momentum
21
Value
51
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $25.00 · Bull $31.00 · Bear $16.00Analysis 2026-08-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $42.70
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d +2.2
Value51 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment70 · Δ7d -3.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Awarded data-center projects may convert slowly or require more capital than expected.
- • CEO and director open-market purchases are supportive sentiment context but do not establish operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-11]
- • The awards are not yet equivalent to contracted revenue, and management indicated conversion can take 6–24 months.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-03
Q2 execution and raised EPS outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
21
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
+4.4
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+3.2
Sentiment
70
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.0
Δ21d
-7.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 21.3 / Value 51.0 / Sentiment 69.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.51B
Beta
2.52
Shares Out
53.07M
P/E (TTM)
26.2
P/S (TTM)
0.87
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-3.29
Rev YoY
+9.1%
EPS YoY
-25.7%
Gross Margin
+15.9%
Op Margin
+6.8%
Net Debt
$1.78B
Current Ratio
1.49
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data