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AMRC

AmerescoB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record Q2 awards and $6.73 billion total project backlog offer substantial potential if unsigned awards become profitable contracts. Q2 revenue rose 9% to $515.5 million and adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to $62.8 million.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-23.
What can break
Army projects require leases, financing, environmental review and permits; selection does not establish construction approval or near-term revenue. [#PR-2026-09-21]
Momentum
19
Value
52
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $22.00 · Bull $29.00 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $41.40
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d -2.4
Value52 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment74 · Δ7d +7.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-23.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Army projects require leases, financing, environmental review and permits; selection does not establish construction approval or near-term revenue. [#PR-2026-09-21]
  • • Negative Q2 operating cash flow and 3.2x corporate leverage narrow financing flexibility. [#PR-2026-08-03]
  • • Awarded backlog is not contracted revenue.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

CFO succession and financial-reporting continuity

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.4
Δ21d
-12.9
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
74
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.2
Δ21d
+8.5
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 18.9 / Value 52.4 / Sentiment 73.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$983.32M
Beta
2.52
Shares Out
53.07M
P/E (TTM)
26.2
P/S (TTM)
0.87
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.14
Rev YoY
+9.1%
EPS YoY
-25.7%
Gross Margin
+15.9%
Op Margin
+6.8%
Net Debt
$1.78B
Current Ratio
1.49
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data