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AMPY

Amplify EnergyD
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Beta royalty relief, strong C04 initial production, no revolver debt, and $41.5 million of cash provide potential operating and balance-sheet support [#SEC-8K-2026-05-11].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.
What can break
Bairoil carbon-storage optionality remains exploratory rather than contracted
Momentum
72
Value
56
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.55 · Bull $5.25 · Bear $2.75Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.75
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d -11.2
Value56 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment47 · Δ7d +3.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Bairoil carbon-storage optionality remains exploratory rather than contracted
  • • Beta drilling execution risk, including recurrence of mechanical issues
  • • The company reaffirmed rather than raised guidance, Q1 reported a substantial net loss, C32 was abandoned, and commodity-derivative volatility remains material.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-02

Beta royalty relief and C04 well performance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
72
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.2
Δ21d
+29.2
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-2.6
Sentiment
47
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
-2.1
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 72.4 / Value 55.7 / Sentiment 47.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$3.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$199.82M
Beta
-0.05
Shares Out
41.46M
P/E (TTM)
13.3
P/S (TTM)
0.66
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.93
Rev YoY
-22.9%
EPS YoY
+168.7%
Gross Margin
+28.6%
Op Margin
+3.4%
Net Debt
-$56.91M
Current Ratio
1.31
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data