B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AMPL
AmplitudeFNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$6.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-0.2
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+2.6
Score
AI commentary
Sentiment is mixed-to-negative after earnings. The primary release showed solid growth and backlog, but the market prioritized weaker profitability and cash flow: shares fell 21.4% on May 7, 2026 to $5.91 from $7.52 on May 6, then traded back near $6.26 intraday on May 8, 2026 per StockAnalysis price history. Delayed analyst reaction was available and skewed negative, with downgrade/target-cut headlines outweighing the constructive top-line details. With medium coverage, a loose peer set, and no strong post-print thesis change beyond a profitability reset, this remains a tentative monitoring setup rather than a standard-conviction bullish turn.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; memo remains a monitoring view with limited forward evidence and should not be standard-conviction
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-22catalystPost-earnings profitability reset is the near-term swing factorMedium impact
Q1 revenue rose 17% to $93.5 million, ARR rose 17% to $374 million, and RPO rose 31% to $427.4 million, but non-GAAP operating loss widened to $(3.1) million, free cash flow was $(13.2) million, and FY2026 non-GAAP operating income guidance was only $2.5-$6.5 million, leaving the setup more about margin credibility than top-line debate [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
2026-08-05eventQ2 print must show the Statsig/AI push is not diluting executionHigh impact
Management framed early adoption of new pricing/packaging at 25% of contracted ARR, multi-product ARR at 77%, and highlighted the Statsig partnership plus new AI agents; the next reporting checkpoint needs to show those launches convert into durable bookings without a deeper profitability giveback [#8-K-2026-05-06].
2026-11-12catalystStronger contracted backlog can support a later rerating if cash conversion followsHigh impact
March 31, 2026 RPO of $427.4 million was up 31% year over year, with $279.7 million due within 12 months, which is a better forward-demand signal than the stock reaction implied; if that backlog converts while cash burn improves, the valuation gap to software peers can narrow [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology