AMPL

AmplitudeF

Nasdaq / Software & Services

At close

2026-06-03

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$8.25

+1.7% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$6.40

-21.1% vs current

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$4.75

-41.4% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-08

AI commentary

Sentiment is mixed-to-negative after earnings. The primary release showed solid growth and backlog, but the market prioritized weaker profitability and cash flow: shares fell 21.4% on May 7, 2026 to $5.91 from $7.52 on May 6, then traded back near $6.26 intraday on May 8, 2026 per StockAnalysis price history. Delayed analyst reaction was available and skewed negative, with downgrade/target-cut headlines outweighing the constructive top-line details. With medium coverage, a loose peer set, and no strong post-print thesis change beyond a profitability reset, this remains a tentative monitoring setup rather than a standard-conviction bullish turn.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-08

Open post-earnings memo

Evidence flagged

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; memo remains a monitoring view with limited forward evidence and should not be standard-conviction

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-22catalystPost-earnings profitability reset is the near-term swing factorMedium impact

Q1 revenue rose 17% to $93.5 million, ARR rose 17% to $374 million, and RPO rose 31% to $427.4 million, but non-GAAP operating loss widened to $(3.1) million, free cash flow was $(13.2) million, and FY2026 non-GAAP operating income guidance was only $2.5-$6.5 million, leaving the setup more about margin credibility than top-line debate [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].

2026-08-05eventQ2 print must show the Statsig/AI push is not diluting executionHigh impact

Management framed early adoption of new pricing/packaging at 25% of contracted ARR, multi-product ARR at 77%, and highlighted the Statsig partnership plus new AI agents; the next reporting checkpoint needs to show those launches convert into durable bookings without a deeper profitability giveback [#8-K-2026-05-06].

2026-11-12catalystStronger contracted backlog can support a later rerating if cash conversion followsHigh impact

March 31, 2026 RPO of $427.4 million was up 31% year over year, with $279.7 million due within 12 months, which is a better forward-demand signal than the stock reaction implied; if that backlog converts while cash burn improves, the valuation gap to software peers can narrow [#10-Q-2026-05-07].

View full catalyst timeline

Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology