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AMPL

AmplitudeF
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The better-than-feared part of the quarter was demand quality: ARR grew 17%, RPO grew 31%, enterprise customers over $100K ARR rose 18% to 727, and customers over $1M ARR rose 25% to 55 [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-07]. If the market concludes the selloff over-discounted a temporary investment step-up, shares have recovery potential, but the peer set and forward evidence do not support a standard-conviction bullish thesis yet.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Amplitude's filings still emphasize exposure to customer retention, enterprise sales-cycle variability, IT spending pressure, and evolving privacy/data laws, which can slow growth even if product interest stays healthy [#10-K-2026-02-19].
Momentum
96
Value
40
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $6.40 · Bull $8.25 · Bear $4.75Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $15.14
Why
Momentum96 · Δ7d +2.5
Value40 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Amplitude's filings still emphasize exposure to customer retention, enterprise sales-cycle variability, IT spending pressure, and evolving privacy/data laws, which can slow growth even if product interest stays healthy [#10-K-2026-02-19].
  • • FY2026 non-GAAP operating income guidance of $2.5-$6.5 million leaves little room for execution slips after increased AI and platform investment [#8-K-2026-05-06].
  • • Post-print read-through was negative because analysts focused on weaker profitability and execution risk around the Statsig/AI push.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-22

Post-earnings profitability reset is the near-term swing factor

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
96
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
+2.1
Value
40
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
0
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 96.0 / Value 40.5 / Sentiment 0.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$6.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.18B
Beta
1.50
Shares Out
124.92M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-26.0
P/S (TTM)
4.45
P/FCF (TTM)
81.79
Rev YoY
+21.2%
EPS YoY
+42.5%
Gross Margin
+72.3%
Op Margin
-27.2%
Net Debt
-$182.43M
Current Ratio
0.95
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data