B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ALMS
AlumisDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The residual bull case is centered on envudeucitinib's psoriasis efficacy, the planned Q4 2026 NDA filing, and a potential biomarker-defined SLE development path. ONWARD3 reported 54% PASI 100 at 48 weeks [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
A planned psoriasis NDA filing is not approval; review, labeling, safety, and commercial execution risks remain [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
Momentum
1
Value
41
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $8.50 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $4.50Analysis 2026-09-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $31.13
Why
Momentum1 · Δ7d -0.2
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -53.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -53.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A planned psoriasis NDA filing is not approval; review, labeling, safety, and commercial execution risks remain [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
- • LUMUS failed its primary and secondary endpoints in the overall SLE population [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-09-01].
- • The overall-population LUMUS failure materially weakens the SLE thesis and raises uncertainty around regulatory acceptance of the IFNGS-high subgroup.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-01
LUMUS overall-population failure resets sentiment
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
1
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-40.5
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
56
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-53.8
Δ21d
-32.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 1.4 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 55.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-10. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.25B
Beta
-
Shares Out
127.49M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-8.9
P/S (TTM)
39.22
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-8.25
Rev YoY
-37.7%
EPS YoY
-243.9%
Gross Margin
+52.3%
Op Margin
-5479.5%
Net Debt
-$271.67M
Current Ratio
6.74
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data