B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
+139.5% vs current
ALMS
AlumisANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
+89.6% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
-30.1% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
0.0
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+100.0
Score
AI commentary
Constructive but still milestone-driven. The May 14 company update reinforced robust Phase 3 psoriasis data, on-track 4Q26 NDA timing, and cash runway into 4Q27 [#8-K-2026-05-14]. However, the setup remains binary around the 3Q26 SLE readout and the eventual regulatory path, and the packet does not provide reliable fresh analyst-revision or social-signal confirmation, so confidence should stay moderate rather than exuberant.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-29
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-09-15eventPotentially pivotal SLE Phase 2b topline data in 3Q 2026High impact
The May 14 update kept the potentially pivotal envudeucitinib SLE readout in 3Q 2026, which is the most important incremental test of whether the TYK2 franchise can broaden beyond psoriasis [#8-K-2026-05-14].
2026-10-15catalystONWARD3 and two-year safety data can extend the durability case in 2H 2026High impact
The company also flagged ONWARD3 topline and Phase 2 two-year safety data for 2H 2026, which matters because durable efficacy and safety will shape whether envudeucitinib can defend a premium psoriasis valuation rather than remain a single-data-point story [#8-K-2026-05-14].
2026-11-15eventPsoriasis NDA submission remains targeted for 4Q 2026High impact
Alumis said its psoriasis NDA remains on track for 4Q 2026, making filing execution and FDA feedback the next key de-risking step after the positive Phase 3 package [#8-K-2026-05-14].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology