B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ALMS
AlumisCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
A timely psoriasis NDA, supported by the reported ONWARD3 long-term response data, could restore confidence. A regulator-supported SLE trial design would add optionality, but the failed overall LUMUS result remains the controlling clinical fact [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-09-01].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -17.1.
What can break
Clinical development and potential launch preparation could increase cash needs; the $502.3 million cash and marketable-securities figure is dated June 30, 2026 [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
Momentum
2
Value
41
Sentiment
79
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.00 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $4.00Analysis 2026-09-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $31.13
Why
Momentum2 · Δ7d +0.4
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment79 · Δ7d -17.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -17.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Clinical development and potential launch preparation could increase cash needs; the $502.3 million cash and marketable-securities figure is dated June 30, 2026 [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
- • LUMUS missed its primary and secondary endpoints in the overall SLE population; a prespecified subgroup response does not reverse that result [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-09-01].
- • The SLE setback may limit the value of a second indication; subgroup findings may not replicate or support registration.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Plaque-psoriasis NDA submission
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
2
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+0.6
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
79
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-17.1
Δ21d
-10.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 1.7 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 79.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-25. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$886.41M
Beta
-
Shares Out
133.5M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2.3
P/S (TTM)
39.22
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.15
Rev YoY
-37.7%
EPS YoY
-243.9%
Gross Margin
+52.3%
Op Margin
-5479.5%
Net Debt
-$271.67M
Current Ratio
6.74
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data