B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
+25.8% vs current
ALKS
AlkermesANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
+6.5% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
-20.1% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.7
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+53.5
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source evidence is strong and the recent news flow is constructive, but this remains a monitoring-style biopharma setup rather than a high-conviction growth call. The positive phase 3 sleep readout improves the long-term thesis, while leverage, REMS and licensing constraints, and the need for filing/review keep near-term visibility limited. No fresh analyst revision data were available in the packet, so confidence stays moderate.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-29
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-05eventQ1 results confirm post-Avadel scale-upMedium impact
Alkermes reported Q1 2026 revenue of $392.9M, GAAP net loss of $66.5M, and adjusted EBITDA of $80.3M; LUMRYZ contributed $39.5M in its first partial quarter post-close, and management kept full-year 2026 revenue guidance unchanged while improving GAAP net loss and EBITDA expectations after Avadel purchase accounting [#IR-2026-05-05].
2026-05-20catalystMay 20 governance 8-K is a minor watch itemMedium impact
The May 20 8-K disclosed a director/officer departure and compensatory-arrangements items; this is worth monitoring for governance context, but it does not appear to change the core operating thesis [#8-K-2026-05-20].
2026-12-31catalystREVITALYZ readout expands LUMRYZ optionalityHigh impact
The company announced positive topline REVITALYZ phase 3 results in idiopathic hypersomnia, with LUMRYZ meeting the primary endpoint and key secondary endpoints; Alkermes said it plans to present detailed data and file an sNDA with the FDA by the end of 2026, extending the sleep-franchise catalyst path [#IR-2026-05-12].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology