B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AII
American Integrity Insurance GroupBNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print showed accelerating voluntary production, strong profitability, improving reinsurance economics, and higher book value. These support upside if the lower combined ratio and growth initiatives prove durable [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.6.
What can break
Analyst revisions, consensus surprise data, and post-release market-reaction attribution are unavailable.
Momentum
95
Value
64
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $25.50 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $19.00Analysis 2026-08-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-09-24 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-25
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-25
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-25. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.00
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d -0.6
Value64 · Δ7d +0.7
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +4.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst revisions, consensus surprise data, and post-release market-reaction attribution are unavailable.
- • Florida catastrophe frequency or severity could overwhelm underwriting gains and reinsurance protection.
- • Q1 earnings and ROE were sharply below the prior-year comparison, and Florida catastrophe risk remains structurally significant.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-12
Strong Q2 results and cheaper catastrophe reinsurance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
95
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-0.8
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
61
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.6
Δ21d
+0.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 94.6 / Value 63.9 / Sentiment 60.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$25.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-09-24
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-09-24
Market Cap
$496.3M
Beta
-
Shares Out
19.59M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
4.5
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
3.45
Rev YoY
+54.6%
EPS YoY
+7.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+36.2%
Net Debt
-$243.04M
Current Ratio
1.46
As of 2026-09-25 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data