B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-11-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AII
American Integrity Insurance GroupANYSE / Insurance
Last Price
$29.41+$1.27 (+4.51%)
At close · 2026-11-11
Current thesis
Q3's $1.44 adjusted EPS, 70.6% combined ratio and 57% voluntary new-business-policy growth support a stronger earnings outlook if underwriting discipline persists. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-10] Citizens raised its target to $32 from $29 while retaining Market Outperform, according to Investing.com.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.
What can break
Florida catastrophe exposure could reverse the favorable Q3 loss ratio. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-10]
Momentum
81
Value
64
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $30.50 · Bull $35.00 · Bear $22.50Analysis 2026-11-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-11-11 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-11-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-11-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.75
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d +4.0
Value64 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +4.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Florida catastrophe exposure could reverse the favorable Q3 loss ratio. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-10]
- • Reduced quota-share cessions amplified net-premium growth and leave more underwriting risk with AII. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-10]
- • Net-premium growth partly reflects reduced quota-share reinsurance, not just organic production.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-18
Q3 earnings beat and post-print repricing
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
81
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
-2.8
Value
64
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
60
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.4
Δ21d
+4.4
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 80.8 / Value 63.6 / Sentiment 59.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-11-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$30.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-11-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-11-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-11-11
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-11-11
Market Cap
$576.29M
Beta
-
Shares Out
19.6M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
5.2
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
4.01
Rev YoY
+54.6%
EPS YoY
+7.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+36.2%
Net Debt
-$243.04M
Current Ratio
1.46
As of 2026-11-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data