B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AII
American Integrity Insurance GroupBNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 showed strong voluntary-market momentum, improving profitability, record pretax earnings, and cheaper CAT reinsurance. Continued growth in Florida, middle-aged homes, and expansion states could support book-value and earnings compounding.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Analyst target count, estimate revisions, and post-print market-reaction attribution are unavailable; recent CEO open-market sales add an overhang. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-10]
Momentum
69
Value
64
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.00 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $16.50Analysis 2026-08-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-12 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-08-12 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-08-12
Investment thesis
As of 2026-08-12
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-08-12. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $24.75
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d +16.1
Value64 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst target count, estimate revisions, and post-print market-reaction attribution are unavailable; recent CEO open-market sales add an overhang. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-10]
- • Florida catastrophe losses, reserve volatility, and reinsurance outcomes remain material business risks; the company’s Q2 release highlights CAT coverage, retention, and probable-maximum-loss assumptions. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11]
- • The strong Q2 rebound follows a materially weaker Q1 year-over-year earnings and combined-ratio comparison, so sustainability is unproven.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-11
Q2 2026 earnings beat with record operating metrics
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
69
10% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+16.1
Δ21d
+30.0
Value
64
40% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
59
49% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 68.6 / Value 63.9 / Sentiment 58.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-12. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-12
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-12
Market Cap
$448.83M
Beta
-
Shares Out
19.59M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
4.1
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
9.82
Rev YoY
+26.5%
EPS YoY
-44.6%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$243.04M
Current Ratio
105144.50
As of 2026-08-12 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data