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AGNC

AGNC InvestmentC
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2's $0.20 per-share tangible-book-value gain, $0.40 net spread and dollar roll income, and $0.36 common dividends show the potential for attractive total economic return if Agency MBS spreads and funding remain supportive. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-20]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Additional ATM equity issuance may dilute per-share returns unless proceeds are deployed attractively. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-20]
Momentum
23
Value
62
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.75 · Bull $10.25 · Bear $7.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.75
Why
Momentum23 · Δ7d +2.6
Value62 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -3.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Additional ATM equity issuance may dilute per-share returns unless proceeds are deployed attractively. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-20]
  • • Q2 actual portfolio prepayments exceeded the quarter-end projected portfolio-life CPR; faster prepayments can pressure asset yields and premium amortization. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-20]
  • • The Q2 return is not a forward guarantee: 7.4x at-risk leverage magnifies rate and mortgage-spread moves, while ATM issuance can dilute per-share upside.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-09

Declared common dividend payment

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
23
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.6
Δ21d
+7.0
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-9.8
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.1
Δ21d
-9.0
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 23.1 / Value 62.3 / Sentiment 51.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$10.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$10.41B
Beta
1.35
Shares Out
1.19B
P/E (TTM)
16.7
P/S (TTM)
3.12
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-11.16
Rev YoY
+412.1%
EPS YoY
-400.0%
Gross Margin
+100.0%
Op Margin
+103.3%
Net Debt
$100.05B
Current Ratio
0.19
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data