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AGNC

AGNC InvestmentB
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print improved tangible book value and delivered a 6.7% economic return while maintaining the dividend and liquidity profile. Management believes Agency MBS supply-demand conditions and still-elevated spreads can support returns into the second half of 2026.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
7.4x tangible book value leverage increases sensitivity to funding costs, hedging outcomes, and MBS valuation changes.
Momentum
44
Value
62
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $11.10 · Bull $11.75 · Bear $9.75Analysis 2026-07-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $11.06
Why
Momentum44 · Δ7d -8.4
Value62 · Δ7d -10.0
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +4.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 7.4x tangible book value leverage increases sensitivity to funding costs, hedging outcomes, and MBS valuation changes.
  • • Actual portfolio CPR was 13.0% versus 8.6% projected, and premium amortization cost was $47 million in Q2.
  • • The earnings beat did not eliminate operating pressure: net spread income and net interest spread both declined sequentially, while 7.4x leverage leaves results sensitive to rates, MBS spreads, hedging, and funding conditions.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-20

Q2 earnings beat with higher tangible book value

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
44
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.4
Δ21d
-5.8
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
+5.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 43.7 / Value 62.1 / Sentiment 67.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$11.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$11.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$12.98B
Beta
1.35
Shares Out
1.19B
P/E (TTM)
16.7
P/S (TTM)
3.12
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-13.92
Rev YoY
+412.1%
EPS YoY
-400.0%
Gross Margin
+100.0%
Op Margin
+103.3%
Net Debt
$100.05B
Current Ratio
0.19
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data