B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$285.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AGM
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Non-VotingBNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record Q2 volume, earnings, spread, capital, and efficiency metrics support continued growth, with FLX modernization and second-half wholesale-finance expansion as potential longer-term drivers.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.
What can break
Credit provisions and portfolio credit migration could increase with growth or weaker agricultural and infrastructure credit conditions.
Momentum
63
Value
58
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $257.00 · Bull $285.00 · Bear $205.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $257.00
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d -17.5
Value58 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment71 · Δ7d +1.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Credit provisions and portfolio credit migration could increase with growth or weaker agricultural and infrastructure credit conditions.
- • No reliable post-earnings analyst revision, target-change, or price-reaction data is available in the packet.
- • Underlying earnings were less strong after excluding the interest recovery and compensation true-up.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-04
Q2 2026 record results
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
63
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-17.5
Δ21d
-28.1
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
-0.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 62.5 / Value 57.8 / Sentiment 71.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$257.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.44B
Beta
1.00
Shares Out
10.85M
P/E (TTM)
10.2
P/S (TTM)
1.18
P/FCF (TTM)
7.29
Rev YoY
+59.3%
EPS YoY
+12.4%
Gross Margin
+100.0%
Op Margin
+89.8%
Net Debt
$29.89B
Current Ratio
0.11
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data