B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$250.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AGM
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Non-VotingCNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record Q2 core earnings of $58.8 million, 22% business-volume growth, and a 13.2% Tier 1 capital ratio support an earnings-growth case if volume and spread strength persist. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Credit migration and higher provisions could offset portfolio growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Momentum
52
Value
58
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $195.00 · Bull $250.00 · Bear $155.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $257.00
Why
Momentum52 · Δ7d -7.8
Value58 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment51 · Δ7d +0.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Credit migration and higher provisions could offset portfolio growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
- • FLX adoption and earnings contribution are not yet quantified. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
- • The $7.4 million interest recovery aided Q2 spread, while credit migration and large individual transactions complicate extrapolation.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Credit costs and spread normalization
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
52
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.8
Δ21d
-21.4
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
-0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 51.9 / Value 57.9 / Sentiment 51.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$195.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$2.11B
Beta
1.00
Shares Out
10.85M
P/E (TTM)
10.2
P/S (TTM)
1.18
P/FCF (TTM)
7.29
Rev YoY
+59.3%
EPS YoY
+12.4%
Gross Margin
+100.0%
Op Margin
+89.8%
Net Debt
$29.89B
Current Ratio
0.11
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data