B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$5.19
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
AGIO
AgiosFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Positive clinical readouts or a value-accretive partnership that materially de-risks programs and meaningfully extends runway could push shares toward the bull target (~+40% vs anchor).
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Clinical trial failure or safety signal
Momentum
31
Value
41
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.08 · Bull $5.19 · Bear $2.60Analysis 2025-10-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-10-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $45.75
Why
Momentum31 · Δ7d +11.6
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Clinical trial failure or safety signal
- • Insufficient cash runway prompting dilutive financing
- • Negative trial results, regulatory setbacks, or a dilutive equity raise at depressed prices would compress value and could drive shares toward the bear target (~-30% vs anchor).
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Quarterly earnings / guidance update
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
31
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.6
Δ21d
+11.3
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
0
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 30.7 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 0.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-10-10. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.08
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.01B
Beta
0.91
Shares Out
59.7M
P/E (TTM)
3.8
P/S (TTM)
35.74
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-5.40
Rev YoY
+259.3%
EPS YoY
-12.5%
Gross Margin
+86.5%
Op Margin
-466.8%
Net Debt
-$814.22M
Current Ratio
10.22
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data