B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$5.19
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
AGIO
AgiosFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Positive clinical readouts or a value-accretive partnership that materially de-risks programs and meaningfully extends runway could push shares toward the bull target (~+40% vs anchor).
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Clinical trial failure or safety signal
Momentum
33
Value
41
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.08 · Bull $5.19 · Bear $2.60Analysis 2025-10-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-10-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $45.75
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d -14.2
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Clinical trial failure or safety signal
- • Insufficient cash runway prompting dilutive financing
- • Negative trial results, regulatory setbacks, or a dilutive equity raise at depressed prices would compress value and could drive shares toward the bear target (~-30% vs anchor).
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Quarterly earnings / guidance update
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
33
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.2
Δ21d
+8.3
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
0
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 33.5 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 0.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-10-10. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.08
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.01B
Beta
0.91
Shares Out
59.7M
P/E (TTM)
3.8
P/S (TTM)
35.74
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-5.40
Rev YoY
+259.3%
EPS YoY
-12.5%
Gross Margin
+86.5%
Op Margin
-466.8%
Net Debt
-$814.22M
Current Ratio
10.22
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data