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AER

AerCapA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, 18% adjusted Q2 ROE, 16% year-over-year book-value-per-share growth, strong asset-sale economics and substantial repurchases support a constructive operating view. [#PR-AER-2026-07-29]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.
What can break
AerCap remains capital-intensive and leveraged; refinancing costs and interest rates can pressure spreads despite Q2 adjusted debt-to-equity of 2.05 times.
Momentum
58
Value
56
Sentiment
84
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $160.00 · Bull $185.00 · Bear $110.00Analysis 2026-09-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $179.30
Why
Momentum58 · Δ7d +0.6
Value56 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment84 · Δ7d +0.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AerCap remains capital-intensive and leveraged; refinancing costs and interest rates can pressure spreads despite Q2 adjusted debt-to-equity of 2.05 times.
  • • Airline customer credit deterioration or geopolitical disruptions could impair collections, utilization or asset recoverability.
  • • A meaningful portion of recent strength came from elevated asset-sale gains, while accelerated OEM deliveries could eventually pressure lease rates and aircraft values.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Asset-sale and capital-allocation follow-through

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
58
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+14.8
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-4.2
Sentiment
84
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+4.4
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 57.8 / Value 55.7 / Sentiment 84.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$160.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$110.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$23.23B
Beta
1.21
Shares Out
154.43M
P/E (TTM)
28.4
P/S (TTM)
5.06
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-44.91
Rev YoY
+4.9%
EPS YoY
-35.8%
Gross Margin
+55.8%
Op Margin
+49.0%
Net Debt
$42.13B
Current Ratio
0.68
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data