AER

AerCapA

NYSE / Capital Goods

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$185.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$160.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$110.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-09-13

AI commentary

The verified company release is positive, led by raised guidance, strong asset-sale execution and repurchases. Direct aircraft-lessor disclosures from BOC Aviation and Avolon corroborate strong utilization, placement and transaction activity, but neither supplies a clean U.S.-listed valuation comparison. Recent independent coverage remains sparse, and no sufficiently covered social, options, short-interest or employee dataset was supplied; zero values in those fields denote unavailable evidence rather than neutral readings. The deterministic prior is only marginally positive and carries very high uncertainty (0.881) with low evidence quality (0.08). No reliable post-event analyst revision set or attributable market-reaction evidence was available, so the memo remains a cautious monitoring view.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-13

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Evidence flagged

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-12-31eventAsset-sale and capital-allocation follow-throughMedium impact

Q2 asset sales reached $1.4 billion with $223 million of gains, while share repurchases totaled $691 million in the quarter and more than $1.4 billion year to date. Continued execution at attractive values could reinforce book-value growth, but unusually strong sale gains create a difficult comparison. [#PR-AER-2026-07-29]

2026-12-31catalystDelivery against raised 2026 EPS guidanceMedium impact

AerCap raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $16.80 after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $5.14. Realization now depends partly on recurring lease economics because the guidance excludes additional second-half gains on sale. [#PR-AER-2026-07-29]

2027-09-13catalystOrder-book monetization under constrained aircraft supplyHigh impact

Management cited sustained air-travel demand and aircraft supply constraints, and AerCap ordered 15 Boeing 787s for delivery from 2030 through 2033. Favorable lease rates and asset values could persist if supply remains constrained, although faster OEM production would weaken that setup. [#PR-AER-2026-07-29]

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-09-13 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology