B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$179.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AER
AerCapBNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Raised adjusted EPS guidance, an 18% Q2 adjusted ROE, improving net spread, asset sales above book and substantial repurchases support further per-share compounding if aircraft scarcity persists. [#PR-AER-2026-07-29] [#SEC-6K-2026-07-29]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
What can break
Adjusted debt-to-equity of 2.05-to-1 leaves sensitivity to funding costs, capital-market access and credit ratings.
Momentum
76
Value
55
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $160.00 · Bull $179.30 · Bear $119.21Analysis 2026-09-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $179.80
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d +10.0
Value55 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -4.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted debt-to-equity of 2.05-to-1 leaves sensitivity to funding costs, capital-market access and credit ratings.
- • Airline customer credit deterioration could impair collections, lease renewals or repossession outcomes.
- • The thesis depends partly on cyclical asset values and customer credit.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28 · BMO
Asset-sale and repurchase follow-through
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
76
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.0
Δ21d
+17.8
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
65
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.3
Δ21d
-14.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 75.6 / Value 54.7 / Sentiment 64.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$160.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$119.21
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$23.17B
Beta
1.21
Shares Out
154.43M
P/E (TTM)
28.4
P/S (TTM)
5.06
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-44.80
Rev YoY
+4.9%
EPS YoY
-35.8%
Gross Margin
+55.8%
Op Margin
+49.0%
Net Debt
$42.13B
Current Ratio
0.68
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data