RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

AER

AerCapA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The post-earnings setup is constructive: strong adjusted earnings, higher FY2026 guidance, improved net spread, meaningful asset-sale gains and continued repurchases support upside toward the packet's $179.30 median analyst target. However, the target count is unavailable and the evidence is not a fresh post-print consensus update.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Geopolitical, sanctions, trade and regulatory risks remain explicit management risks, including continuing Ukraine-related exposure. [#IR-2026-07-29]
Momentum
58
Value
56
Sentiment
84
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $170.00 · Bull $180.00 · Bear $130.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $179.30
Why
Momentum58 · Δ7d +0.6
Value56 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment84 · Δ7d +0.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Geopolitical, sanctions, trade and regulatory risks remain explicit management risks, including continuing Ukraine-related exposure. [#IR-2026-07-29]
  • • Guidance includes first-half gains on sale but excludes additional second-half gains, increasing sensitivity to asset-sale timing and pricing. [#IR-2026-07-29]
  • • Reported earnings benefited materially from asset sales and other adjustments, while Q2 capex was $1.9 billion and adjusted debt/equity remained 2.05x.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-29

Strong Q2 print and higher FY2026 guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
58
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+14.8
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-4.2
Sentiment
84
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+4.4
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 57.8 / Value 55.7 / Sentiment 84.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$180.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$170.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$130.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$23.23B
Beta
1.21
Shares Out
154.43M
P/E (TTM)
28.4
P/S (TTM)
5.06
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-44.91
Rev YoY
+4.9%
EPS YoY
-35.8%
Gross Margin
+55.8%
Op Margin
+49.0%
Net Debt
$42.13B
Current Ratio
0.68
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data