B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AENT
Alliance EntertainmentBNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Revenue growth broadened across vinyl, CDs, movies, and collectibles while gross profit grew faster than sales. Lower interest expense and management's focus on higher-value products, automation, and operating leverage could extend adjusted earnings growth.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Fiscal 2027 commentary emphasized profitable growth, cash generation, and operating leverage but did not provide quantitative guidance.
Momentum
95
Value
64
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.00 · Bull $9.00 · Bear $4.00Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-09-10 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $8.50
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d -
Value64 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Fiscal 2027 commentary emphasized profitable growth, cash generation, and operating leverage but did not provide quantitative guidance.
- • GAAP operating income and net income declined year over year despite higher revenue and gross profit.
- • GAAP operating income and net income declined despite revenue growth, partly reflecting a $7.8 million non-cash vendor-rebate write-off, while operating cash flow turned negative as inventory and receivables rose.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-11
Fiscal 2026 earnings re-rating
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
95
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
61
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 94.6 / Value 63.8 / Sentiment 60.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-09-10
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-09-10
Market Cap
$278.35M
Beta
0.48
Shares Out
50.98M
P/E (TTM)
20.5
P/S (TTM)
0.37
P/FCF (TTM)
9.83
Rev YoY
+21.2%
EPS YoY
+24.8%
Gross Margin
+13.3%
Op Margin
+3.8%
Net Debt
$81.2M
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data