B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AENT
Alliance EntertainmentBNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q3 FY2026 showed 21.2% revenue growth, higher net income, and stronger year-to-date adjusted EBITDA, while vinyl, CD, and movie categories grew. Confirmation at the September 10 event could support a rerating.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Alliance Authentic and Endstate commercialization remain unproven and may not contribute materially.
Momentum
95
Value
64
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.60 · Bull $8.00 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2026-09-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.00
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d -
Value64 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Alliance Authentic and Endstate commercialization remain unproven and may not contribute materially.
- • Detailed balance-sheet, cash-flow, and dilution interpretation is limited by the available filing excerpts.
- • Low coverage, absent consensus and guidance data, no recent-news stream, and unproven monetization of Alliance Authentic limit conviction.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-10
FY2026 results and conference call
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
95
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 94.6 / Value 64.2 / Sentiment 59.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$5.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$278.35M
Beta
0.48
Shares Out
50.98M
P/E (TTM)
20.5
P/S (TTM)
0.37
P/FCF (TTM)
9.83
Rev YoY
+21.2%
EPS YoY
+24.8%
Gross Margin
+13.3%
Op Margin
+3.8%
Net Debt
$81.2M
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data