B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AENT
Alliance EntertainmentANasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 8% and gross margin expanded to 13.3%; premium formats, collectibles and fulfillment could sustain growth if working capital converts to cash. [#SEC-8K-2026-09-10] SEC earnings exhibit
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.
What can break
Fiscal 2026 operating cash flow turned negative as inventory and receivables grew faster than revenue. [#SEC-8K-2026-09-10]
Momentum
95
Value
65
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.20 · Bull $7.00 · Bear $3.00Analysis 2026-10-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.00
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d -
Value65 · Δ7d -1.0
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Fiscal 2026 operating cash flow turned negative as inventory and receivables grew faster than revenue. [#SEC-8K-2026-09-10]
- • GAAP operating income declined to $27.2 million from $30.1 million; a $7.8 million vendor-rebate receivable write-off and higher SG&A weighed on results. [#SEC-8K-2026-09-10]
- • GAAP operating income and net income fell despite adjusted earnings growth.
Catalyst clock
2027-01-31
Inventory and receivables cash conversion
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
95
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 94.6 / Value 64.9 / Sentiment 54.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$5.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$249.04M
Beta
0.48
Shares Out
50.98M
P/E (TTM)
20.5
P/S (TTM)
0.37
P/FCF (TTM)
9.83
Rev YoY
+21.2%
EPS YoY
+24.8%
Gross Margin
+13.3%
Op Margin
+3.8%
Net Debt
$81.2M
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data