ADAG

AdageneD

Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences

Quote time unavailable

View Chart

AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$4.50

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$2.30

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$0.90

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-10-14

AI commentary

Cautious monitoring view. The company’s August results release and September ADG138 announcement establish identifiable clinical milestones, but neither resolves randomized efficacy. No reliable post-release price-reaction attribution, analyst revisions, or usable social, options, short-interest, and employee measures were supplied; zero-valued fields denote unavailable inputs, not neutral readings. The deterministic prior remains negative with 0.931 uncertainty and 0.08 evidence quality.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-14

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

small-cap biotech peer set is too weak or includes unrelated comparators for a standard-conviction report

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-12-31catalystADG138 first-in-human study initiationHigh impact

Following China’s clearance of the ADG138 investigational new drug application, Adagene expects to start a Phase 1 study in advanced solid tumors in Q4 2026. Starting the study would confirm execution, not clinical efficacy [#PR-2026-09-22]. Source: https://adagene.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/adagene-announces-nmpa-clearance-investigational-new-drug/

2027-06-30eventRandomized Phase 2 MSS colorectal cancer resultsHigh impact

Adagene expects results from its randomized muzastotug-plus-pembrolizumab dose-optimization study in 1H 2027. This is the principal efficacy and tolerability test: earlier nonrandomized cohorts showed different response rates by dose, while Grade 3 treatment-related adverse events were reported in 38% of patients in the 20 mg/kg cohorts [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-12]. Company release: https://investor.adagene.com/news-releases/news-release-details/adagene-reports-six-months-2026-financial-results-and-provides

2027-12-31catalystDose selection and potential registration-trial transitionHigh impact

Adagene expects a potential registration trial in 2027 after establishing a recommended muzastotug dose regimen. Fast Track designation and reported FDA alignment support planning but do not establish that the randomized data will justify advancement [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-12]. Company release: https://investor.adagene.com/news-releases/news-release-details/adagene-reports-six-months-2026-financial-results-and-provides

View full catalyst timeline

Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-10-14 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology