ACM

AECOMD

NYSE / Capital Goods

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3

B+

Bull case

30%

Probability

Target price

$86.00

+20.4% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$76.00

+6.4% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$63.00

-11.8% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-14

AI commentary

Primary-source evidence is solid because the May 11, 2026 earnings release and May 12, 2026 10-Q confirm the core thesis, but the post-print setup still looks monitoring-style rather than fully risk-on. By May 14, 2026, ACM was around the packet anchor of $70.52, so obvious upside follow-through was limited in available quote data, and immediate intraday earnings-reaction detail was not confirmed here. Secondary T+3 coverage indicates mixed analyst revision flow, with some price-target cuts despite maintained positive ratings, which tempers confidence even after the guidance raise.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-14

Open post-earnings memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-11eventQ2 print raised FY26 earnings guidance againHigh impact

AECOM reported record second-quarter performance, record backlog of $26.2B, a 1.2 design book-to-burn ratio, and raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.90-$6.10 from $5.85-$6.05 while also lifting adjusted EBITDA guidance [#8-K-2026-05-11].

2026-08-10catalystQ3 cash collection normalization is the key post-earnings proof pointMedium impact

Management reaffirmed roughly $400M of FY2026 free cash flow despite delayed Middle East payments and longer claims resolution; the next quarter needs to show that collections recovery and working-capital normalization are real rather than deferred [#8-K-2026-05-11] [#10-Q-2026-05-12].

2026-12-31catalystBacklog and remaining performance obligations support multi-quarter visibilityHigh impact

The Q2 release cited record backlog and double-digit pipeline growth, while the 10-Q said remaining unsatisfied performance obligations were $20.1B as of March 31, 2026, with about 60% expected to be satisfied within 12 months, supporting conversion visibility if execution holds [#8-K-2026-05-11] [#10-Q-2026-05-12].

View full catalyst timeline

Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-14 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology