B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ACM
AECOMBNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-13
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+45.0
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+70.3
Score
AI commentary
The primary earnings release is mixed: record backlog and wins contrast with a major project loss, lower guidance, and weaker reported earnings. ACM is anchored at $61.04 on 2026-08-12, but the packet does not provide a clean event-day return or verified post-print analyst revisions. Insider purchases provide a modest secondary confidence signal only and do not offset execution risk. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-16]
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-13
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-11-11eventQ3 earnings reset and lower FY2026 guidanceHigh impact
AECOM reported a $337 million pre-tax Construction Management project charge, a GAAP EPS loss of $0.65, and reduced FY2026 guidance to adjusted EPS of $3.95-$4.15 and approximately $300 million of free cash flow. The release also identified delayed project starts and Middle East conflict as NSR headwinds. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
2026-11-11catalystBacklog conversion and claims executionHigh impact
Near-term performance depends on converting record wins into revenue while containing the delayed Construction Management project. Substantial completion is expected in Q2 FY2027, while recovery claims may require several years of litigation. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
2027-08-13catalystRecord backlog supports normalized earnings recoveryHigh impact
Backlog rose 13% to a record level on $4.2 billion of wins and a 1.6 book-to-burn ratio. Excluding the project charge, adjusted EPS was $1.49 and adjusted EBITDA was $329 million; AECOM reaffirmed its long-term margin and EPS growth targets. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-13 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology