B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$37.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ACHC
Acadia HealthcareBNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-31
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.1
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
+30.0
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+77.0
Score
AI commentary
News tone is mixed: the company raised several full-year guidance ranges, but the reported earnings profile was weaker year over year. The $28.14 July 30 anchor indicates weak post-release price action, though the packet does not provide a clean event-window return or attribution. Post-print analyst revisions and options/social coverage are unavailable, so confidence remains moderate.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-31
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-28eventQ2 results and upgraded 2026 cash-flow guidanceMedium impact
Q2 revenue was $865.8 million and adjusted EBITDA was $149.2 million, while management raised the 2026 adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, and operating-cash-flow ranges and lowered planned capex. The release did not provide a verified consensus comparison, so the surprise signal remains uncertain [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
2026-12-31catalystReserve, reimbursement, and specialty-facility pressureHigh impact
Adjusted EBITDA declined year over year, including a $28.6 million PLGL reserve adjustment; Specialty Treatment revenue fell 8.4%, while management continues to flag payer, regulatory, litigation, and reserve uncertainty [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
2026-12-31catalystOccupancy ramp and newly added capacityHigh impact
Acadia added 240 licensed beds in Q2, opened two joint-venture facilities, and said it expects further progress in the second half from occupancy ramps at recently opened facilities [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-31 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology