B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ACHC
Acadia HealthcareCNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-10-02
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-26.0
Negative
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-26.0
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+59.6
Score
AI commentary
The deterministic prior has turned positive, supported by higher guidance floors and an improved cash-flow outlook, but operating confirmation is incomplete. Packet coverage reports that shares were down 12.8% since Q2 results as of September 24; the October 1 anchor is lower still, without evidence tying that later move to one cause. No reliable post-print analyst-revision series or measured social, options, short-interest or employee sentiment was supplied; zero values above denote unavailable data, not neutral readings.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-02
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-12-10eventDerivative-settlement approval hearingMedium impact
A court hearing is scheduled for December 10 to consider final approval of a proposed stockholder derivative-action settlement. Preliminary approval is not final resolution, and the filing does not establish that broader litigation or liability risks have ended [#8-K-2026-09-25]. Company notice
2026-12-31event2026 guidance and cash-flow deliveryHigh impact
Acadia's July guidance raised the lower bounds for 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS, increased operating-cash-flow guidance to $350–$400 million, and reduced planned capital spending to $235–$255 million. Delivery against those ranges is the clearest test of the improving cash-flow case [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]. Company Q2 release
2026-12-31catalystNew-bed occupancy versus weak same-facility growthHigh impact
Acadia added 240 licensed beds in Q2 and said it was ramping occupancy at recently opened facilities. Yet same-facility revenue was flat, with patient days up 0.8% and revenue per patient day down 0.8%; sustained utilization and pricing improvement remain unproven [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-10-02 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology