ACEL

Accel EntertainmentB

NYSE / Consumer Services

At close

2026-06-03

View Chart

AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

30%

Probability

Target price

$15.70

+33.7% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$13.40

+14.1% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$9.80

-16.5% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-08

AI commentary

Primary-source evidence improved after the May 5, 2026 earnings release, and news tone is modestly constructive because the company delivered record revenue and described several active growth levers. Still, this is a low-coverage name: no trustworthy post-print analyst revision set was confirmed from checked sources, and the immediate reaction evidence is mixed. Investing.com reported shares were up 3.19% in after-hours trading to $12.60 on May 5, 2026, but the packet anchor was $11.36 as of May 7, 2026, implying that not all of the initial enthusiasm held. That keeps the memo in cautious monitoring mode rather than a high-conviction rerating call.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-08

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-29catalystRecord Q1 print improved the near-term setup, but the earnings reaction still needs to holdHigh impact

Q1 2026 revenue reached $351.6 million, up 8.5% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA up 8.6% to $53.8 million; management also said Fairmount purse timing reduced reported adjusted EBITDA by about $2.0 million and net income by about $1.5 million, while Q1 buybacks totaled 1.08 million shares for about $12.1 million. That combination supports a better post-earnings setup, but thin coverage means the follow-through should be monitored rather than assumed. [#IR-2026-05-05] [#10-Q-2026-05-05]

2026-09-30eventChicago terminal approvals remain the clearest upside event, but timing is still regulatory-drivenHigh impact

Management called Chicago one of its most important near-term opportunities, said the Illinois Gaming Board is actively processing applications, and said the company is signing locations ahead of final approvals. That preserves a real expansion option, but the revenue start date still depends on external regulatory timing and implementation. [#IR-2026-05-05]

2026-12-31catalystFairmount ramp and developing-market mix can add incremental 2026 growth if margins keep scalingHigh impact

Management said Fairmount Park launched table games in April and is seeing steady month-over-month engagement growth, while Nebraska posted standout growth and Louisiana remains active for bolt-on deals. If Fairmount, Nebraska, Georgia, and Nevada continue scaling, ACEL has a path to better mix and margin support beyond its mature Illinois base. [#IR-2026-05-05]

View full catalyst timeline

Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology