B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ACAD
ACADIABNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Strong DAYBUE and NUPLAZID execution, higher FY2026 revenue guidance, potential European DAYBUE expansion, and a successful remlifanserin readout could support meaningful upside [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.2.
What can break
Analyst-count, options, short-interest, social-sentiment, and employee-sentiment data are unavailable, limiting confirmation of market positioning.
Momentum
72
Value
61
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $29.00 · Bull $38.00 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-08-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $34.00
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d -18.2
Value61 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment67 · Δ7d +8.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst-count, options, short-interest, social-sentiment, and employee-sentiment data are unavailable, limiting confirmation of market positioning.
- • DAYBUE and NUPLAZID execution must sustain the increased FY2026 revenue guidance.
- • The near-term thesis is increasingly dependent on execution against raised guidance and a binary remlifanserin result; a disappointing readout, commercial slowdown, or regulatory delay could pressure the shares.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-04
Q2 2026 results and guidance increase
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
72
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-18.2
Δ21d
-22.0
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.2
Δ21d
+10.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 72.4 / Value 61.4 / Sentiment 66.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5B
Beta
0.66
Shares Out
172.31M
P/E (TTM)
16.8
P/S (TTM)
4.22
P/FCF (TTM)
44.70
Rev YoY
+16.4%
EPS YoY
+15.2%
Gross Margin
+91.1%
Op Margin
+7.6%
Net Debt
-$767.5M
Current Ratio
3.39
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data