B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ACAD
ACADIABNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-17
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+65.0
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+67.9
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source tone is constructive after strong Q2 product growth and higher FY2026 guidance, but the earnings event appears largely absorbed by the 2026-08-14 anchor price of $28.24. Incremental upside depends on commercial follow-through and the September-October remlifanserin readout. Social, options, short-interest, and employee data are unavailable; the zero values above denote unavailable measurements, not neutral readings.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-17
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-04eventQ2 2026 results and guidance increaseMedium impact
Q2 revenue reached $308 million, DAYBUE sales rose 30% to $125 million, NUPLAZID sales rose 10% on an adjusted basis to $183 million, and FY2026 revenue guidance increased to $1.24-$1.30 billion [#8-K-2026-08-04] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
2026-11-15catalystExecution against raised FY2026 guidanceMedium impact
The higher revenue outlook now requires continued DAYBUE STIX uptake and NUPLAZID momentum; this is an execution watch rather than a confirmed incremental catalyst [#8-K-2026-08-04] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
2027-08-17catalystRemlifanserin Phase 2 Alzheimer’s disease psychosis readoutHigh impact
ACADIA expects topline Phase 2 results in September-October 2026; the Phase 2 portion is enrolled, Phase 3 screening has begun, and Fast Track designation was received, but efficacy remains unconfirmed and the outcome is binary [#8-K-2026-08-04] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-17 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology