B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ACAD
ACADIADNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-10-14
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-0.6
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+43.0
Score
AI commentary
September coverage was negative following the RADIANT miss, and stored secondary reporting describes analyst target cuts. The $18.62 October 13 anchor is about 16% below a reported $22.18 September 25 close, though that later decline cannot be attributed solely to the trial. The reported analyst revisions have not been independently confirmed. Social, options, short-interest and employee measurements are unavailable; zeros above denote missing data, not neutral readings.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-14
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-09-24eventRADIANT Phase 2 miss resets the remlifanserin thesisHigh impact
The 60 mg dose missed the primary endpoint (p=0.0603), while a key secondary endpoint was nominally significant (p=0.0077). Acadia plans to continue two Phase 3 studies but remove the 30 mg arm. The primary-endpoint miss remains the dominant risk despite the secondary signal. [#8-K-2026-09-24]
2026-11-19eventDetailed RADIANT results at CTADMedium impact
Acadia plans to present detailed efficacy and safety results at CTAD on November 16–19. The presentation may clarify the 60 mg signal and Phase 3 amendments, but cannot erase the Phase 2 primary-endpoint miss. [#8-K-2026-09-24]
2026-12-31catalystDAYBUE and NUPLAZID execution against 2026 guidanceHigh impact
Q2 DAYBUE sales rose 30% year over year to $125 million, while NUPLAZID sales were $183 million. Acadia raised 2026 revenue guidance to $1.24–$1.30 billion. Sustained uptake could cushion pipeline weakness; a guidance miss would undermine that support. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-10-14 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology