B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ACAD
ACADIADNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
DAYBUE and NUPLAZID growth may support the business while the 60 mg remlifanserin signal is tested further. The Q2 release reported $956 million of cash, equivalents and investments at June 30.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
Commercial growth must sustain raised guidance while R&D and selling expenses continue; Q2 R&D was $82 million and SG&A was $160 million. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Momentum
6
Value
62
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.00 · Bull $26.00 · Bear $12.00Analysis 2026-10-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.53
Why
Momentum6 · Δ7d +2.9
Value62 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment43 · Δ7d -4.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Commercial growth must sustain raised guidance while R&D and selling expenses continue; Q2 R&D was $82 million and SG&A was $160 million. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
- • Detailed data and subsequent Phase 3 outcomes remain uncertain; the packet provides no confirmed regulatory decision date.
- • A missed primary endpoint, weak 30 mg results and the need to amend Phase 3 reduce confidence in remlifanserin.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-24
RADIANT Phase 2 miss resets the remlifanserin thesis
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
6
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.9
Δ21d
-1.6
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
43
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.4
Δ21d
-37.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 6.3 / Value 62.1 / Sentiment 43.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$3.4B
Beta
0.66
Shares Out
172.31M
P/E (TTM)
16.8
P/S (TTM)
4.22
P/FCF (TTM)
44.70
Rev YoY
+16.4%
EPS YoY
+15.2%
Gross Margin
+91.1%
Op Margin
+7.6%
Net Debt
-$767.5M
Current Ratio
3.39
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data