AUBN

AI MemoPost-earnings T+1

Auburn National Bancorporation

As of 2026-10-22/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Verify third-quarter results before revising the thesis • 2026-10-31

Base target: $27 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

The negative provision may not recur; deposit composition, a $0.4 million second-quarter loss-contingency accrual, and rate-sensitive securities values complicate the quality-of-earnings picture. Third-quarter results and guidance have not been confirmed. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28] Company earnings exhibit

Invalidation

Break below $22 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The confirmed second-quarter release showed higher year-over-year EPS, improved tax-equivalent margin, and low reported nonperforming assets. If those operating gains persist without further reserve releases, earnings could support a higher valuation. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28] Company earnings exhibit

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-10-22

Base target

$27

p=50%

Bull target

$31

p=25%

Bear target

$22

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Test whether the second-quarter credit benefit persists
Assess deposit composition and sustainable interest income
The confirmed second-quarter release showed higher year-over-year EPS, improved tax-equivalent margin, and low reported nonperforming assets.

BearKey bullets

Reciprocal-deposit fluctuations and changing deposit costs could reverse margin improvement.
Second-quarter negative credit-loss provision and CECL refinements limit confidence that reported earnings strength will repeat.
The scheduled October 21 earnings trigger is not itself evidence that third-quarter results were released; earnings surprise and guidance remain unavailable.

WatchKey bullets

Verify third-quarter results before revising the thesis

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+1

Base case: $27 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +15% / -19%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $31 (p=25%)Base Target: $27 (p=50%)Bear Target: $22 (p=25%)

Commentary

The available recent-news packet predates the scheduled third-quarter follow-up. A live quote was approximately $26.50 at 13:55 UTC on October 22, versus the packet's $26.46 October 20 anchor, but no confirmed earnings print supports calling that a post-results reaction. Consensus surprise, analyst revisions, and verified post-print commentary are unavailable. The zero-valued sentiment fields indicate unavailable measurements, not neutral readings.

As of 2026-10-22 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Test whether the second-quarter credit benefit persists
Assess deposit composition and sustainable interest income

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$31 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$27 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$22 / p=25% prob

Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-10-31
Verify third-quarter results before revising the thesis
The scheduled follow-up identifies October 21 as an earnings date, but no third-quarter 2026 company release or SEC earnings exhibit was confirmed by this review. The last confirmed earnings release is for the second quarter: EPS was $0.66 and tax-equivalent net interest margin was 3.33%. Third-quarter results, any surprise, and guidance remain unverified. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28] Company earnings exhibit
Prob 70.00% • Move 3.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Test whether the second-quarter credit benefit persists
2026-11-15
Second-quarter EPS benefited from a $248,000 negative credit-loss provision. The company attributed part of the lower allowance versus a year earlier to a CECL calculation refinement, so another reserve release should not be assumed. A renewed provision or loan deterioration would weaken the earnings interpretation. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28] Company earnings exhibit
Prob 45% • Move -3% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Assess deposit composition and sustainable interest income
2027-03-31
Second-quarter deposits rose to $988.3 million, partly because reciprocal deposits retained on the balance sheet increased to $82.3 million from $19.9 million in the prior quarter. Future disclosures must distinguish durable funding and margin gains from balance-sheet mix fluctuations. [#10-Q-2026-08-11] [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28] Company earnings exhibit
Prob 45% • Move 4% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Reciprocal-deposit fluctuations and changing deposit costs could reverse margin improvement.
Second-quarter negative credit-loss provision and CECL refinements limit confidence that reported earnings strength will repeat.
The scheduled October 21 earnings trigger is not itself evidence that third-quarter results were released; earnings surprise and guidance remain unavailable.
The second-quarter $0.4 million loss-contingency accrual had no recognized insurance recovery in that period.
Thin coverage and loose peer comparability limit confidence in price targets.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CPBI	Similar-sized bank candidate only; limited evidence prevents a reliable peer-multiple conclusion.
FNWB	Similar-sized bank candidate, but geography, funding mix, and credit exposure have not been reconciled with AUBN.
FUSB	Similar-sized bank candidate, but no verified operating or valuation comparison is available; do not infer a relative discount.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-10-22

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Symbol

Summary

CPBI

Similar-sized bank candidate only; limited evidence prevents a reliable peer-multiple conclusion.

FNWB

Similar-sized bank candidate, but geography, funding mix, and credit exposure have not been reconciled with AUBN.

FUSB

Similar-sized bank candidate, but no verified operating or valuation comparison is available; do not infer a relative discount.