FUSB

AI Memo

First US Bancshares

As of 2026-01-24/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings release (Q1 2026 assumed window) • 2026-04-24

Expected move: -15%

Biggest risk

NIM compression, rising loan-loss provisions, or material deposit outflows compress earnings and valuation, producing downside to the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $12 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Outperformance driven by NIM improvement, contained credit losses, and successful local M&A or deposit-cost wins; bull target reflects ~+20% vs the anchor.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-24

Base target

$14

p=60%

Bull target

$17

p=20%

Bear target

$12

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Near-term loan growth and margin pressure
M&A or strategic expansion in community-banking consolidation
Outperformance driven by NIM improvement, contained credit losses, and successful local M&A or deposit-cost wins; bull target reflects ~+20% vs the anchor.

BearKey bullets

Adverse regulatory/capital requirements
Deposit outflows to larger banks or higher-yield instruments
Net interest margin compression from deposit competition

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings release (Q1 2026 assumed window)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $14 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +5% / -30%

Vs latest close: Bull +5% · Base -15% · Bear -30%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $17 (p=20%)Base Target: $14 (p=60%)Bear Target: $12 (p=20%)

Commentary

Coverage is sparse and tone is mixed-to-neutral; median targets cluster near current levels, leaving idiosyncratic catalysts (NIM, provisions, strategic news) as primary drivers for re-rating.

As of 2026-01-24 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Outperformance driven by NIM improvement, contained credit losses, and successful local M&A or deposit-cost wins; bull target reflects ~+20% vs the anchor.

Bear Case

NIM compression, rising loan-loss provisions, or material deposit outflows compress earnings and valuation, producing downside to the bear target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Near-term loan growth and margin pressure
M&A or strategic expansion in community-banking consolidation

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-24Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$13.98

Range (USD)

$10.47 - $32.00

Count

Query: First US Bancshares Inc Common (FUSB) analyst consensus price target high low average

First Us Bancsh (FUSB) Stock Price, News & Analysis - MarketBeat
Search result #1
Price Target: N/A. Consensus Rating: Hold. Company Overview. First US Bancshares, Inc. is the bank holding company for First US Bank, a community-focused ...
Open source
First US Bancshares, Inc. (FUSB) Analyst Ratings, Estimates ...
Search result #2
See First US Bancshares, Inc. (FUSB) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source
First Us Bancshares Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy FUSB?
Search result #3
The 52-week high for First US Bancshares Inc Stock is $14.78 and the 52-week low is $10.47.
Extracted: $14.78, $10.47Open source
First US Bancshares, Inc. Stock Forecast & FUSB Price Target 2025 ...
Search result #4
1 Analyst has issued a First US Bancshares, Inc. price target 2026. The average First US Bancshares, Inc. target price is $32.00. This is. 159.53%.
Extracted: $32.00Open source
FUSB Stock Quote Price and Forecast | CNN
Search result #5
The price of FUSB shares has increased $0.64 since the market last closed. This is a 4.47% rise. Closed at $14.96.
Extracted: $14.96Open source
FUSB Technical Analysis & Stock Price Forecast - Intellectia AI
Search result #6
First US Bancshares Inc (FUSB) 5-Day simple moving average is 13.94, while First US Bancshares Inc (FUSB) share price is $14, making it a Buy.
Extracted: $14.00Open sourceJan 16, 2026

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=20% prob

Price $17 as of 2026-07-21

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +5% · Base -15% · Bear -30%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-24
Quarterly earnings release (Q1 2026 assumed window)
Upcoming quarterly results may reveal loan-loss provisions and NIM trends; date assumed at quarter-end window if not disclosed (assumption: company will report by 2026-04-24) [#SERP-2].
Prob 95.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Near-term loan growth and margin pressure
2026-04-24
Local/regional loan demand and continued deposit competition could compress net interest margin and earnings over the next quarter [#SERP-1],[#SERP-3].
Prob 65% • Move 8% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

M&A or strategic expansion in community-banking consolidation
2027-01-24
Potential for consolidation in the community-bank sector to create upside on successful deals; timing uncertain, long-horizon assumption used (2027-01-24) [#SERP-1].
Prob 25% • Move 30% • Priced-in 10%

Risks

Adverse regulatory/capital requirements
Deposit outflows to larger banks or higher-yield instruments
Net interest margin compression from deposit competition
Rising loan-loss provisions / credit-quality deterioration

Peers

Symbol	Summary
FNB	Regional/community bank with a comparable retail/commercial footprint and interest-rate sensitivity.
FULT	Mid-sized regional bank focused on community lending; similar exposure to local CRE and deposit market dynamics.
PNFP	Regional bank with a mix of commercial and consumer banking; comparable sensitivity to NIM and credit cycles.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: First US Bancshares Inc Common (FUSB) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-24

AI Stock Memo: FUSB - First US Bancshares - RankAlpha