WAL

Rating buyAI Memo

Western Alliance Bancorporation

As of 2026-01-27/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Regulatory / supervisory developments or guidance • 2026-04-27

Expected move: +29%

Biggest risk

Sustained deposit outflows, rising CRE charge-offs, or supervisory actions compress multiples and may require capital actions, driving price toward the analyst low (75.0).

Invalidation

Break below $75 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Credit metrics stabilize, deposit trends improve or reprice successfully, and investor confidence returns, driving a re-rate toward the analyst high (120.75).

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-27

Base target

$101

p=60%

Bull target

$121

p=20%

Bear target

$75

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Near-term deposit re-pricing and NII sensitivity
Credit normalization and re-rating to consensus
Credit metrics stabilize, deposit trends improve or reprice successfully, and investor confidence returns, driving a re-rate toward the analyst high (120.75).

BearKey bullets

Deteriorating commercial/CRE loan performance
Equity capital raise/dilution
Large deposit outflows or rapid deposit re-pricing

WatchKey bullets

Regulatory / supervisory developments or guidance

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $101 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +54% / -4%

Vs latest close: Bull +54% · Base +29% · Bear -4%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $121 (p=20%)Base Target: $101 (p=60%)Bear Target: $75 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sentiment is neutral-to-cautious: median analyst target near $101.18 vs anchor $88.42, with a wide $75–$120.75 range reflecting divergent views on credit and deposit risk. Recent headlines and the earnings print have driven short-term focus on capital, funding, and CRE exposure.

As of 2026-01-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Credit metrics stabilize, deposit trends improve or reprice successfully, and investor confidence returns, driving a re-rate toward the analyst high (120.75).

Bear Case

Sustained deposit outflows, rising CRE charge-offs, or supervisory actions compress multiples and may require capital actions, driving price toward the analyst low (75.0).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Near-term deposit re-pricing and NII sensitivity
Credit normalization and re-rating to consensus

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-27Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$101.18

Range (USD)

$75.00 - $120.75

Count

Query: Western Alliance Bancorp Common (WAL) analyst consensus price target high low average

Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #1
... company based on insider trading. 0 Low. Sector Avg. 100 High. Research Reports: WAL. View More. Lowering target price to $97.00. WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORP has ...
Extracted: $97.00Open source
Western Alliance Bancorp. Analyst Estimates - WAL - MarketWatch
Search result #2
Stock Price Targets. High, $115.00. Median, $100.00. Low, $85.00. Average, $101.18. Current Price, $90.88. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. WAL will report 2025 ...
Extracted: $115.00, $100.00, $85.00, $101.18, $90.88Open source
Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #3
The highest price target for WAL is $118.00, while the lowest price target for WAL is $85.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 17.58% ...
Extracted: $118.00, $85.00Open source
Western Alliance stock forecast - WAL - TipRanks
Search result #4
The average price target is $102.29 with a high forecast of $115.00 and a low forecast of $85.00. The average price target represents a 17.57% change from the ...
Extracted: $102.29, $115.00, $85.00Open source
Western Alliance Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:WAL
Search result #5
Western Alliance Bancorp has a consensus price target of $92.17 based on the ratings of 24 analysts. The high is $115 issued by Barclays on December 19, ...
Extracted: $92.17, $115.00Open source
Western Alliance Bancorp. Research & Ratings | WAL - Barron's
Search result #6
ConsensusBuyBuy. Stock Price Target. High, $115.00. Low, $85.00. Average, $101.18. Current Price, $90.88. WAL will report FY 2025 earnings on 01/26/2026. Yearly ...
Extracted: $115.00, $85.00, $101.18, $90.88Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$121 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$101 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$75 / p=20% prob

Price $78 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +54% · Base +29% · Bear -4%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-27
Regulatory / supervisory developments or guidance
Potential regulatory actions or supervisory guidance stemming from asset-quality reviews or capital discussions could materially affect valuation; market commentary has highlighted regulatory focus in recent analyst notes [#SERP-5]. Date is conservatively set to the end of the disclosed window/quarter where such actions would likely be reported.
Prob 25.00% • Move -20.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Near-term deposit re-pricing and NII sensitivity
2026-04-27
Deposit outflows or accelerated re-pricing that compresses net interest income could trigger a near-term re-rating; analysts flagged deposit sensitivity around the recent earnings cycle [#SERP-2]. Assumed date is 90 days after as_of_date for conservatism.
Prob 40% • Move -12% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Credit normalization and re-rating to consensus
2027-01-27
If credit losses stabilize and capital metrics improve, the shares could re-rate toward analyst median/high targets as coverage and confidence recover [#SERP-2][#SERP-3]. One-year horizon conservatively assumed.
Prob 35% • Move 35% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Deteriorating commercial/CRE loan performance
Equity capital raise/dilution
Large deposit outflows or rapid deposit re-pricing
Regulatory intervention or supervisory capital requirements

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PNC	Large regional; useful comparator for deposit and commercial loan-cycle dynamics.
TFC	Truist: diversified regional franchise; reference for interest-rate and deposit sensitivity.
RF	Regions Financial: comparable commercial/consumer footprint and credit-cycle behavior.
CMA	Comerica: concentrated CRE exposure; conservative outcomes provide a downside benchmark.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Western Alliance Bancorp Common (WAL) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-27

AI Stock Memo: WAL - Western Alliance Bancorporation - RankAlpha