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WAL

Western Alliance BancorporationB
NYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q3 net interest margin rose to 3.57%, nonaccruals declined, reserve coverage strengthened and the company repurchased $92.1 million of shares. These results improve the prior funding-and-credit thesis, though confirmation beyond one quarter is needed.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Management expects seasonal Q4 deposit outflows, a 3–4 basis-point net-interest-margin headwind and softer warehouse lending amid elevated mortgage rates. Earnings-call transcript
Momentum
37
Value
64
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $81.00 · Bull $92.00 · Bear $62.00Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $89.24
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d -1.1
Value64 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment58 · Δ7d +0.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Management expects seasonal Q4 deposit outflows, a 3–4 basis-point net-interest-margin headwind and softer warehouse lending amid elevated mortgage rates. Earnings-call transcript
  • • Management lowered 2026 net-interest-income growth guidance to 11–12% from 12–14% and deposit-growth guidance to $3.5–4 billion from $6 billion. Earnings-call transcript
  • • The $0.02 EPS beat over the cited pre-report consensus was small, while management reduced net-interest-income, loan-growth and deposit-growth expectations.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-15

Post-earnings reassessment of slower growth

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
37
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
-4.4
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
-24.6
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 36.8 / Value 64.0 / Sentiment 58.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$81.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$8.3B
Beta
1.36
Shares Out
109.1M
P/E (TTM)
10.8
P/S (TTM)
2.83
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.50
Rev YoY
+9.3%
EPS YoY
+14.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+20.9%
Net Debt
$5.98B
Current Ratio
0.11
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data