B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$101.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
WAL
Western Alliance BancorporationBNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 showed robust loan growth, stable NIM, lower funding costs, improving criticized-loan trends, stronger tangible book value, and solid capital. Post-print coverage reported Stephens raising its target to $95 from $90 while maintaining Overweight and DA Davidson raising its target to $96 from $90 while maintaining Buy.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.3.
What can break
Adjusted Q2 EPS of $2.22 missed the pre-release $2.33 consensus estimate.
Momentum
33
Value
64
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $91.00 · Bull $101.00 · Bear $73.00Analysis 2026-07-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $92.25
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d +5.7
Value64 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment71 · Δ7d +2.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted Q2 EPS of $2.22 missed the pre-release $2.33 consensus estimate.
- • Deposits fell $849 million sequentially and the loan-to-deposit ratio increased to 74.4%. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
- • Adjusted EPS missed the $2.33 pre-release consensus, deposits declined 1.0% sequentially, the loan-to-deposit ratio rose to 74.4%, efficiency weakened to 58.0%, and nonaccrual loans increased to 0.92% of funded HFI loans.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-21
Mixed Q2 earnings with strong operating drivers
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
33
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.7
Δ21d
-5.1
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-6.2
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.3
Δ21d
+3.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 33.1 / Value 63.8 / Sentiment 71.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$91.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$73.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.92B
Beta
1.36
Shares Out
109.1M
P/E (TTM)
10.8
P/S (TTM)
2.83
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.83
Rev YoY
+9.3%
EPS YoY
+14.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+20.9%
Net Debt
$5.98B
Current Ratio
0.11
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data