AI Stock Memo: COLB - Columbia Banking System - RankAlpha

COLB

AI Memo

Columbia Banking System

As of 2026-01-25/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Analyst consensus re-rating toward 12-month targets • 2026-04-25

Expected move: +3%

Biggest risk

Bear scenario reflects deposit pressure or local CRE weakness that compresses multiples and triggers re-rating below current consensus, producing material downside to the low-to-mid $20s.

Invalidation

Break below $26 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull scenario assumes sustained NIM expansion and above-consensus loan growth that lifts valuation to the analyst high ($35.00) as confidence in earnings durability returns.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-25

Base target

$30

p=60%

Bull target

$35

p=25%

Bear target

$26

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst consensus re-rating toward 12-month targets
Sustained NIM expansion and steady loan growth
Bull scenario assumes sustained NIM expansion and above-consensus loan growth that lifts valuation to the analyst high ($35.00) as confidence in earnings durability returns.

BearKey bullets

Deposit outflows or liquidity stress
Local commercial real estate (CRE) deterioration
Rapid NIM compression from rate volatility

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 28.88, "timestamp_utc": "2026-01-23T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Base target (29.89) aligns with the analyst median; bull (35.00) equals the analyst high and bear (26.00) sits below the analyst low (28.00) to capture a stressed-outcome scenario.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $30 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +21% / -10%

Vs latest close: Bull +21% · Base +3% · Bear -10%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $35 (p=25%)Base Target: $30 (p=60%)Bear Target: $26 (p=15%)

Commentary

Market commentary is mixed-to-cautious with consensus price targets clustered near $30, indicating modest upside from current levels [#SERP-1]. Recent aggregator snapshots show an analyst median near $29.89 and highs toward $35, suggesting the market is watching NIM and deposit trends closely [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-01-25 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull scenario assumes sustained NIM expansion and above-consensus loan growth that lifts valuation to the analyst high ($35.00) as confidence in earnings durability returns.

Bear Case

Bear scenario reflects deposit pressure or local CRE weakness that compresses multiples and triggers re-rating below current consensus, producing material downside to the low-to-mid $20s.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst consensus re-rating toward 12-month targets
Sustained NIM expansion and steady loan growth

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-25Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$29.89

Range (USD)

$28.00 - $35.00

Count

Query: Columbia Banking System Inc Common (COLB) analyst consensus price target high low average

Columbia Banking (COLB) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 13 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Columbia Banking is 31.85, with a high estimate of 37 and a low estimate of ...
Open source
Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #2
Q4. FY25. 0. 200M. 400M. 600M. View More. Analyst Insights: COLB. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 28.00. 32.08 Average. 28.88 Current. 37.00 High. Analyst ...
Open source
COLB | Columbia Banking System Inc. Analyst Estimates & Ratings
Search result #3
Stock Price Target COLB. High, $35.00. Median, $30.00. Low, $28.00. Average, $31.04. Current Price, $29.70. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & ...
Extracted: $35.00, $30.00, $28.00, $31.04, $29.70Open source
COLB Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target ...
Search result #4
Financial analysts have set a price target of $30.17, indicating a 0.00% increase from the current stock price, but ratings and forecasts are frequently updated ...
Extracted: $30.17Open source
Columbia Banking (COLB) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #5
The forecasts range from a low of $28.00 to a high of $35.00. The average price target represents an increase of 4.62% from the last closing price of $29.67.
Extracted: $28.00, $35.00, $29.67Open source
Columbia Banking System (COLB) Analyst Rating Update: Price Targ
Search result #6
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 12 analysts, the average target price for Columbia Banking System Inc (COLB, Financial) is $30.92 ...
Extracted: $30.92Open source2 days ago

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$35 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$26 / p=15% prob

Price $29 as of 2026-06-01

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +21% · Base +3% · Bear -10%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst consensus re-rating toward 12-month targets
2026-04-25
Analyst updates and consensus revisions (12-month average targets clustered near $30) may drive near-term repricing as estimates converge; see analyst aggregates and price-target listings [#SERP-1], [#SERP-3].
Prob 40% • Move 8% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Sustained NIM expansion and steady loan growth
2027-01-25
If net interest margin expansion and steady commercial lending persist, the franchise could re-rate higher over a 12-month horizon (consensus high targets near $35) [#SERP-6], [#SERP-5].
Prob 35% • Move 25% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Deposit outflows or liquidity stress
Local commercial real estate (CRE) deterioration
Rapid NIM compression from rate volatility

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ZION	Comparable regional franchise with similar deposit/loan mix and Western US footprint; useful for sensitivity to regional economic cycles.
CUBI	Mid-sized regional with commercial lending focus; provides a reference for execution and credit-cycle exposure.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Columbia Banking System Inc Common (COLB) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-25