VET

Rating buyAI Memo

Vermilion Energy

As of 2026-01-13/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly results and 2026 guidance • 2026-03-31

Base target: $10 / p=60% prob

Biggest risk

Prolonged commodity weakness, reserve impairments, or dividend cuts compress cash flow and force a de-rating toward downside multiples.

Invalidation

Break below $7 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained commodity strength, positive reserve revisions, and disciplined capital returns drive cash-flow upside and re-rating toward mid-teens per share.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-13

Base target

$10

p=60%

Bull target

$14

p=20%

Bear target

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Near-term commodity sensitivity
12-month consensus target review
Sustained commodity strength, positive reserve revisions, and disciplined capital returns drive cash-flow upside and re-rating toward mid-teens per share.

BearKey bullets

CAD/USD translation effects
Commodity price collapse
Dividend or buyback reduction

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly results and 2026 guidance

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $10 (p=60%)

Target spread vs base: +37% / -33%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $14 (p=20%)Base Target: $10 (p=60%)Bear Target: $7 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus pages show mixed but generally constructive targets above the anchor; short-term sentiment hinges on upcoming results and commodity moves, with substantial dispersion across providers [#SERP-1][#SERP-3][#SERP-8].

As of 2026-01-13 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Sustained commodity strength, positive reserve revisions, and disciplined capital returns drive cash-flow upside and re-rating toward mid-teens per share.

Bear Case

Prolonged commodity weakness, reserve impairments, or dividend cuts compress cash flow and force a de-rating toward downside multiples.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Near-term commodity sensitivity
12-month consensus target review

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-13Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$10.11

Range (USD)

$8.13 - $16.00

Count

Query: Vermilion Energy Inc Common (VET) analyst consensus price target high low average

Vermilion Energy (VET) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 11 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Vermilion Energy is 14.13636, with a high estimate of 16 and a low estimate ...
Open source
Vermilion Energy Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #2
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 11 ; Last Close Price. 11.49CAD ; Average target price. 14.00CAD ; Spread / Average Target. +21.85%.
Open source
Vermilion Energy (VET) Stock Price, News & Analysis - MarketBeat
Search result #3
Average Price Target for Vermilion Energy: C$14.00 ; High Price Target: C$16.00 ; Low Price Target: C$11.00 ; Potential Upside/Downside: +20.5% ; Consensus Rating ...
Extracted: $14.00, $16.00, $11.00Open source
Vermilion Energy Inc - VET Intrinsic Value - Alpha Spread
Search result #4
Wall Street analysts forecast VET stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VET is ...
Open source
Vermilion Energy (VET) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #5
The forecasts range from a low of $9.21 to a high of $11.68. The average price target represents an increase of 23.27% from the last closing price of $8.25.
Extracted: $9.21, $11.68, $8.25Open source
VET / Vermilion Energy Inc. (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target ... - Fintel
Search result #6
The average one-year price target for Vermilion Energy Inc. is $9.88. The forecasts range from a low of $8.70 to a high of $11.30. To come up with their price ...
Extracted: $9.88, $8.70, $11.30Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-01-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-31
Quarterly results and 2026 guidance
Quarterly results and any 2026 guidance update can re-rate the stock; conservatively assume end of the typical Q1 reporting window in the absence of a published date [#SERP-9].
Prob 55.00% • Move 20.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Near-term commodity sensitivity
2026-04-13
WTI/NG and macro moves can drive short-term re-pricing; consensus dispersion increases volatility around earnings and guidance windows [#SERP-3][#SERP-8].
Prob 40% • Move 15% • Priced-in 10%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

12-month consensus target review
2027-01-13
Public 12-month analyst targets cluster above the anchor and were used only as sanity checks; referenced consensus pages for range/averages [#SERP-1][#SERP-3][#SERP-9].
Prob 65% • Move 65% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

CAD/USD translation effects
Commodity price collapse
Dividend or buyback reduction
Operational/production shortfalls
Regulatory or geopolitical disruption

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CVE	Cenovus — larger Canadian producer; useful for regional pricing and capital-allocation comparison.
SU	Suncor — integrated Canadian energy company; useful for scale and dividend-policy comparison.
ENB	Enbridge — midstream peer highlighting different cash-flow sensitivity to commodity cycles.
EOG	EOG Resources — U.S. upstream benchmark for operational execution and capital allocation.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Vermilion Energy Inc Common (VET) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-13

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Symbol

Summary

CVE

Cenovus — larger Canadian producer; useful for regional pricing and capital-allocation comparison.

Suncor — integrated Canadian energy company; useful for scale and dividend-policy comparison.

ENB

Enbridge — midstream peer highlighting different cash-flow sensitivity to commodity cycles.

EOG

EOG Resources — U.S. upstream benchmark for operational execution and capital allocation.