SU

AI Memo

Suncor Energy

As of 2026-01-30/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Sustained Oil Price Rally (WTI > $90) • 2027-01-30

Expected move: -9%

Biggest risk

Prolonged commodity weakness, major operational/refining setbacks, or adverse regulatory/royalty changes compress cash flow, force cuts to capex/dividends, and push valuation toward the analyst low.

Invalidation

Break below $41 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained higher oil prices and stronger downstream/refining margins materially increase free cash flow, enabling larger buybacks/dividends and driving a re-rate toward the analyst high.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-30

Base target

$57

p=60%

Bull target

$79

p=20%

Bear target

$41

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4 / FY2025 Results
Capital Allocation / Dividend Policy Update
Sustained higher oil prices and stronger downstream/refining margins materially increase free cash flow, enabling larger buybacks/dividends and driving a re-rate toward the analyst high.

BearKey bullets

Extended oil-price decline reducing FCF and dividend/buyback capacity
Major operational outages or refining incidents
Refining margin compression or weaker downstream demand

WatchKey bullets

Sustained Oil Price Rally (WTI > $90)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $57 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +27% / -34%

Vs latest close: Bull +27% · Base -9% · Bear -34%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $79 (p=20%)Base Target: $57 (p=60%)Bear Target: $41 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautious-to-constructive: analysts show mixed targets around a median near $56.88 while headline focus remains on capital returns and cash flow [#SERP-2], [#SERP-10]. Investor attention is concentrated on near-term quarterly guidance and macro oil-price direction; positive surprise on buybacks/dividends would likely lift sentiment rapidly [#SERP-6].

As of 2026-01-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Sustained higher oil prices and stronger downstream/refining margins materially increase free cash flow, enabling larger buybacks/dividends and driving a re-rate toward the analyst high.

Bear Case

Prolonged commodity weakness, major operational/refining setbacks, or adverse regulatory/royalty changes compress cash flow, force cuts to capex/dividends, and push valuation toward the analyst low.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4 / FY2025 Results
Capital Allocation / Dividend Policy Update

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-30Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$56.88

Range (USD)

$41.04 - $79.20

Count

Query: Suncor Energy Inc Common (SU) analyst consensus price target high low average

Suncor Energy Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #1
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 21 ; Last Close Price. 69.61CAD ; Average target price. 67.85CAD ; Spread / Average Target. -2.53%.
Open source
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
SUNCOR ENERGY INC has an Investment Rating of BUY; a target price of $57.000000; an Industry Subrating of Medium; a Management Subrating of High; a Safety ...
Extracted: $57.00Open source
SU Stock Forecast - Suncor Energy Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #3
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SU is 68.5 CAD with a low forecast of 57.57 CAD and a high forecast of 78.75 CAD.
Open source
Suncor Energy (SU) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #4
The highest price target for SU is C$79.00, while the lowest price target for SU is C$57.00. The average price target represents a forecasted downside of -5.66% ...
Extracted: $79.00, $57.00Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Suncor Energy (SU)
Search result #5
The forecasts range from a low of $41.04 to a high of $56.88. The average price target represents a decline of 4.75% from the last closing price of $53.00.
Extracted: $41.04, $56.88, $53.00Open source
Suncor Energy (SU) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ... - TipRanks
Search result #6
The average price target is C$69.07 with a high forecast of C$79.20 and a low forecast of C$57.14. The average price target represents a -1.51% change from the ...
Extracted: $69.07, $79.20, $57.14Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$79 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$57 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$41 / p=20% prob

Price $62 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +27% · Base -9% · Bear -34%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2027-01-30
Sustained Oil Price Rally (WTI > $90)
Macro-driven sustained oil rally would materially boost FCF and support larger buybacks/dividends, driving a positive re-rate; outcome tied to global supply/demand and geopolitics [#SERP-1], [#SERP-6].
Prob 30.00% • Move 25.00% • Priced-in 35.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4 / FY2025 Results
2026-04-30
Quarterly results and management guidance (production, refining margins, capital returns) may trigger re-pricing; market will focus on cash flow and buyback/dividend commentary [#SERP-2], [#SERP-10].
Prob 90% • Move 8% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Capital Allocation / Dividend Policy Update
2027-01-30
Board action to increase returns of capital (higher buybacks or dividend increases) as deleveraging/profits progress would support a multi-quarter re-rating; assume announcement or confirmation within a 12-month horizon [#SERP-10], [#SERP-6].
Prob 50% • Move 12% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Extended oil-price decline reducing FCF and dividend/buyback capacity
Major operational outages or refining incidents
Refining margin compression or weaker downstream demand
Regulatory, royalty, or tax changes in Canada affecting margins

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CNQ	Large Canadian integrated with comparable oil‑sands and refining exposure — direct operational and valuation comparator.
CVE	Upstream-focused Canadian peer with higher production and oil‑price sensitivity; benchmark for pure‑play commodity risk.
XOM	Global integrated major with diversified downstream/chemicals exposure; useful scale and capital‑allocation comparator.
BP	International integrated with large refining footprint and transition investments; contrasts on low‑carbon strategy and valuation.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Suncor Energy Inc Common (SU) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-30

AI Stock Memo: SU - Suncor Energy - RankAlpha