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SU

Suncor EnergyC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Sustained higher oil prices and stronger downstream/refining margins materially increase free cash flow, enabling larger buybacks/dividends and driving a re-rate toward the analyst high.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
17 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Extended oil-price decline reducing FCF and dividend/buyback capacity
Momentum
61
Value
63
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
17 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $56.88 · Bull $79.20 · Bear $41.04Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $74.92
Why
Momentum61 · Δ7d -22.2
Value63 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +1.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 17 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Extended oil-price decline reducing FCF and dividend/buyback capacity
  • • Major operational outages or refining incidents
  • • Prolonged commodity weakness, major operational/refining setbacks, or adverse regulatory/royalty changes compress cash flow, force cuts to capex/dividends, and push valuation toward the analyst low.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

Q4 / FY2025 Results

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
61
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-22.2
Δ21d
-19.6
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+3.7
Sentiment
54
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
-2.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 61.2 / Value 63.1 / Sentiment 53.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$79.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$56.88
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$41.04
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$78.06B
Beta
0.82
Shares Out
1.17B
P/E (TTM)
14.4
P/S (TTM)
1.50
P/FCF (TTM)
14.14
Rev YoY
+45.9%
EPS YoY
+242.0%
Gross Margin
+46.7%
Op Margin
+21.9%
Net Debt
$7.92B
Current Ratio
1.65
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data