UGI

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

UGI

As of 2026-05-08/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Electric division sale can accelerate debt reduction and simplify the portfolio • 2027-03-31

Expected move: +2%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that the May 6, 2026 print was a reset rather than a clean beat: full-year guidance moved lower, adjusted EPS declined year over year, and management explicitly cited softer near-term earnings from Midstream & Marketing investment timing and the still-progressing AmeriGas transformation [#8-K-2026-05-07]. Post-print analyst revision breadth was not available in the packet, so conviction should stay moderate.

Invalidation

Break below $29 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Primary-source evidence supports a cautious bull case: year-to-date reportable segment EBIT rose to $1.129 billion from $1.112 billion, available liquidity was about $2.1 billion, net leverage was 3.7x, and management tied long-term value creation to portfolio simplification, gas utility economics, and AmeriGas operational improvement [#8-K-2026-05-07].

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-08

Base target

$36

p=45%

Bull target

$40

p=30%

Bear target

$29

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-earnings reset still dominates near-term tape
Gas infrastructure and regulated-rate levers remain the main offset to the guidance cut
Primary-source evidence supports a cautious bull case: year-to-date reportable segment EBIT rose to $1.129 billion from $1.112 billion, available liquidity was about $2.1 billion, net leverage was 3.7x, and management tied long-term value creation to portfolio simplification, gas utility economics, and AmeriGas operational improvement [#8-K-2026-05-07].

BearKey bullets

AmeriGas turnaround execution remains a live risk; management pointed to ongoing transformation work rather than a completed recovery [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was reduced to $2.75-$2.90 from the prior $2.90-$3.15 range [#8-K-2026-05-07].
The March 31, 2026 10-Q shows $807 million of current maturities of long-term debt, so balance-sheet improvement still depends on execution despite solid liquidity [#10-Q-2026-05-07].

WatchKey bullets

Electric division sale can accelerate debt reduction and simplify the portfolio

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $36 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +15% / -18%

Vs latest close: Bull +15% · Base +2% · Bear -18%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $40 (p=30%)Base Target: $36 (p=45%)Bear Target: $29 (p=25%)

Commentary

This is a post-earnings follow-up run after the May 6, 2026 release. Company filings gave clear primary support, but the tone is still monitoring-oriented: trusted secondary coverage framed the reaction as negative after the guidance reduction, and UGI traded at $32.32 on May 8, 2026. Analyst revision depth is still thin in the packet, so the setup looks more like post-reset digestion than a confirmed rerating.

As of 2026-05-08 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-earnings reset still dominates near-term tape
Gas infrastructure and regulated-rate levers remain the main offset to the guidance cut

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$40 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$29 / p=25% prob

Price $35 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +15% · Base +2% · Bear -18%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.10

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2027-03-31
Electric division sale can accelerate debt reduction and simplify the portfolio
Management disclosed a definitive agreement to sell the electric division for about $470 million, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, with the 8-K saying the transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of calendar 2027; together with earlier portfolio pruning, that supports a cleaner natural-gas-focused story and potential deleveraging [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Prob 65.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-earnings reset still dominates near-term tape
2026-05-06
UGI reported Q2 adjusted diluted EPS of $2.09 versus $2.21 a year earlier and cut fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.75-$2.90 from the prior fiscal 2026 range of $2.90-$3.15, while management said near-term earnings softened due to timing of Midstream & Marketing growth investments and the ongoing AmeriGas transformation [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Prob 80% • Move -4% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Gas infrastructure and regulated-rate levers remain the main offset to the guidance cut
2026-11-30
UGI highlighted a Prime Data Centers partnership with expected gas demand above 100,000 dekatherms per day within three to five years, while the March 31, 2026 10-Q shows prior approval of a $70 million annual Pennsylvania base distribution rate increase and an active Mountaineer rate case seeking a $27 million revenue increase, though timing and outcome remain uncertain [#8-K-2026-05-07] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Prob 60% • Move 10% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

AmeriGas turnaround execution remains a live risk; management pointed to ongoing transformation work rather than a completed recovery [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was reduced to $2.75-$2.90 from the prior $2.90-$3.15 range [#8-K-2026-05-07].
The March 31, 2026 10-Q shows $807 million of current maturities of long-term debt, so balance-sheet improvement still depends on execution despite solid liquidity [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
The Mountaineer base rate case was suspended for review by the WVPSC, and the 10-Q says the company cannot predict timing or outcome [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
The electric division sale is not closed and still requires customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, with close expected in the first quarter of calendar 2027 [#8-K-2026-05-07].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NFG	National Fuel Gas is a closer operating peer than broad utilities because it combines regulated gas utility exposure with gas infrastructure sensitivity, making it useful for judging how much investors reward stable gas rate-base and cash-flow visibility.
SWX	Southwest Gas is relevant for comparison on gas-distribution execution, regulatory timing, and customer-service recovery, which matters as UGI works through the AmeriGas turnaround and utility rate-case cadence.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-08

AI Stock Memo: UGI - UGI - RankAlpha