B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
UGI
UGIDNYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source evidence supports a cautious bull case: year-to-date reportable segment EBIT rose to $1.129 billion from $1.112 billion, available liquidity was about $2.1 billion, net leverage was 3.7x, and management tied long-term value creation to portfolio simplification, gas utility economics, and AmeriGas operational improvement [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.9.
What can break
AmeriGas turnaround execution remains a live risk; management pointed to ongoing transformation work rather than a completed recovery [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Momentum
77
Value
58
Sentiment
46
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $35.50 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $28.50Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $42.33
Why
Momentum77 · Δ7d -2.6
Value58 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment46 · Δ7d +5.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AmeriGas turnaround execution remains a live risk; management pointed to ongoing transformation work rather than a completed recovery [#8-K-2026-05-07].
- • Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was reduced to $2.75-$2.90 from the prior $2.90-$3.15 range [#8-K-2026-05-07].
- • The bear case is that the May 6, 2026 print was a reset rather than a clean beat: full-year guidance moved lower, adjusted EPS declined year over year, and management explicitly cited softer near-term earnings from Midstream & Marketing investment timing and the still-progressing AmeriGas transformation [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Post-earnings reset still dominates near-term tape
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
77
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.6
Δ21d
+37.5
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
46
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.9
Δ21d
+2.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 76.7 / Value 58.3 / Sentiment 45.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$35.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$28.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.53B
Beta
1.09
Shares Out
214.5M
P/E (TTM)
12.1
P/S (TTM)
1.11
P/FCF (TTM)
119.25
Rev YoY
-4.5%
EPS YoY
-18.4%
Gross Margin
+42.7%
Op Margin
+14.5%
Net Debt
$7.21B
Current Ratio
1.44
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data