NFG

Rating buyAI Memo

National Fuel Gas

As of 2026-01-31/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Asset sale or portfolio optimization announcement • 2026-12-31

Expected move: +29%

Biggest risk

Adverse rate-case rulings, sustained weak gas demand, or capex overruns erode cash flow and dividend coverage, compressing the multiple toward the analyst low (81.14).

Invalidation

Break below $81 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Favorable regulatory outcomes, modest commodity tailwinds, and successful asset optimization drive EPS and dividend improvement, supporting a re-rating toward the analyst high (111.3).

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-31

Base target

$100

p=60%

Bull target

$111

p=20%

Bear target

$81

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Dividend declaration / cash-flow update
Q1 2026 earnings release
Regulatory rate-case or tariff outcomes

BearKey bullets

Key downside vectors are regulatory/rate-case setbacks that reduce allowed returns and large unanticipated capex or pipeline integrity costs that strain cash flow; weather-driven declines in gas volumes can exacerbate throughput and margin weakness, increasing dividend pressure.
Adverse rate-case rulings, sustained weak gas demand, or capex overruns erode cash flow and dividend coverage, compressing the multiple toward the analyst low (81.14).

WatchKey bullets

Asset sale or portfolio optimization announcement

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $100 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +44% / +5%

Vs latest close: Bull +44% · Base +29% · Bear +5%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $111 (p=20%)Base Target: $100 (p=60%)Bear Target: $81 (p=20%)

Commentary

Investor sentiment is mildly constructive: analyst median targets near $100 imply roughly +19% upside from the $84 anchor, but dispersion (low ~$81, high ~$111) limits upside conviction. Market focus centers on dividend sustainability and near-term regulatory news; upcoming earnings and rate-case outcomes will likely drive short-term tone. Overall sentiment is cautiously positive but remains contingent on execution and regulatory results.

As of 2026-01-31 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Favorable regulatory outcomes, modest commodity tailwinds, and successful asset optimization drive EPS and dividend improvement, supporting a re-rating toward the analyst high (111.3).

Bear Case

Adverse rate-case rulings, sustained weak gas demand, or capex overruns erode cash flow and dividend coverage, compressing the multiple toward the analyst low (81.14).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Dividend declaration / cash-flow update
Q1 2026 earnings release
Regulatory rate-case or tariff outcomes

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-31Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$100.00

Range (USD)

$81.14 - $111.30

Count

Query: National Fuel Gas Co Common (NFG) analyst consensus price target high low average

Consensus National Fuel Gas Company - NFG - MarketScreener
Search result #1
Last Close Price. 81.21USD. Average target price. 99.00USD. Spread / Average Target. +21.91%. High Price Target. 106.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +30.53%.
Extracted: $81.21, $99.00, $106.00Open source
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Analyst Ratings, Estimates ...
Search result #2
See National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source
NFG Stock Ratings & Analyst Recommendations - Financhill
Search result #3
According to 5 analysts, the consensus price target for National Fuel Gas Co. (NFG) is $97.33 per share.
Extracted: $97.33Open source
National Fuel Gas: NFG Stock Price Quote & News - Robinhood
Search result #4
Analyst Kalei Akamine from Bank of America Securities maintained a Buy rating on National Fuel Gas Company and keeping the price target at $99.00. Claim 50 ...
Extracted: $99.00Open source
National Fuel Gas Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:NFG
Search result #5
National Fuel Gas Co has a consensus price target of $81.14 based on the ratings of 8 analysts. The high is $107 issued by B of A Securities on July 15, 2025.
Extracted: $81.14, $107.00Open source
NFG - National Fuel Gas Company (NYSE) - Share Price and News
Search result #6
The average one-year price target for National Fuel Gas Company is $106.08. The forecasts range from a low of $103.02 to a high of $111.30. A stock's price ...
Extracted: $106.08, $103.02, $111.30Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$111 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$100 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$81 / p=20% prob

Price $77 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +44% · Base +29% · Bear +5%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-12-31
Asset sale or portfolio optimization announcement
Potential non-core asset sale or strategic consolidation could re-rate valuation; timing is uncertain so pick conservative end-of-year assumption.
Prob 25.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 10.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Dividend declaration / cash-flow update
2026-03-31
Board dividend decision and cash-flow commentary; continuation supports yield-sensitive demand [#SERP-4].
Prob 90% • Move 3% • Priced-in 60%
Q1 2026 earnings release
2026-04-30
Quarterly results and guidance that typically move utility shares; market watching EPS, gas throughput and weather impact [#SERP-2].
Prob 85% • Move 5% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Regulatory rate-case or tariff outcomes
2027-01-31
Final decisions on state-level rate cases or FERC actions could materially change regulated cash flows; assumed window end used for timing [#SERP-6].
Prob 55% • Move 15% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Key downside vectors are regulatory/rate-case setbacks that reduce allowed returns and large unanticipated capex or pipeline integrity costs that strain cash flow; weather-driven declines in gas volumes can exacerbate throughput and margin weakness, increasing dividend pressure.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
D	Large integrated energy utility with midstream exposure; similar regulatory sensitivity.
ED	Investor-owned utility focused on distribution with rate-case earnings drivers and dividend focus.
NI	Natural gas-focused utility with comparable exposure to throughput and regional weather.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: National Fuel Gas Co Common (NFG) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-31

AI Stock Memo: NFG - National Fuel Gas - RankAlpha