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NFG

National Fuel GasC
NYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Ohio utility acquisition, pipeline expansion, regulated rate-base growth, hedged production, and stated 2029 EPS-growth outlook provide a credible positive long-term setup.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.
What can break
Higher operating costs and labor-related expenses may pressure margins.
Momentum
69
Value
67
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $88.00 · Bull $96.00 · Bear $74.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $92.00
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d +23.4
Value67 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment55 · Δ7d +4.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Higher operating costs and labor-related expenses may pressure margins.
  • • Lower production can offset improved natural-gas pricing and hedge gains.
  • • The Q3 EPS decline, lower production, higher operating costs, acquisition financing, and prospective debt reduction create execution and leverage sensitivity.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-15

Post-earnings follow-up: lower Q3 EPS but constructive outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
69
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+23.4
Δ21d
+9.6
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
55
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 68.9 / Value 67.2 / Sentiment 55.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$96.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$74.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.78B
Beta
0.61
Shares Out
95.05M
P/E (TTM)
14.4
P/S (TTM)
3.42
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
459.15
Rev YoY
-9.5%
EPS YoY
-11.9%
Gross Margin
+40.9%
Op Margin
+36.8%
Net Debt
$2.83B
Current Ratio
3.20
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data