RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

NFG

National Fuel GasB
NYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The Ohio utility acquisition, pipeline expansion, regulated rate-base growth, hedged production, and stated 2029 EPS-growth outlook provide a credible positive long-term setup.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Higher operating costs and labor-related expenses may pressure margins.
Momentum
43
Value
67
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $88.00 · Bull $96.00 · Bear $74.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $93.00
Why
Momentum43 · Δ7d -6.6
Value67 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -0.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Higher operating costs and labor-related expenses may pressure margins.
  • • Lower production can offset improved natural-gas pricing and hedge gains.
  • • The Q3 EPS decline, lower production, higher operating costs, acquisition financing, and prospective debt reduction create execution and leverage sensitivity.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-15

Post-earnings follow-up: lower Q3 EPS but constructive outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
43
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-6.6
Δ21d
-10.7
Value
67
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-15.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 42.5 / Value 66.9 / Sentiment 56.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$96.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$74.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$7.65B
Beta
0.61
Shares Out
95.05M
P/E (TTM)
14.4
P/S (TTM)
3.42
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
451.91
Rev YoY
-9.5%
EPS YoY
-11.9%
Gross Margin
+40.9%
Op Margin
+36.8%
Net Debt
$2.83B
Current Ratio
3.20
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data