B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$96.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NFG
National Fuel GasCNYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Ohio utility acquisition, pipeline expansion, regulated rate-base growth, hedged production, and stated 2029 EPS-growth outlook provide a credible positive long-term setup.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.0.
What can break
Higher operating costs and labor-related expenses may pressure margins.
Momentum
68
Value
67
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $88.00 · Bull $96.00 · Bear $74.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $92.00
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d -2.1
Value67 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment58 · Δ7d +1.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Higher operating costs and labor-related expenses may pressure margins.
- • Lower production can offset improved natural-gas pricing and hedge gains.
- • The Q3 EPS decline, lower production, higher operating costs, acquisition financing, and prospective debt reduction create execution and leverage sensitivity.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-15
Post-earnings follow-up: lower Q3 EPS but constructive outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
68
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.1
Δ21d
+6.6
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
+2.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 68.4 / Value 67.2 / Sentiment 57.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$74.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.78B
Beta
0.61
Shares Out
95.05M
P/E (TTM)
14.4
P/S (TTM)
3.42
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
459.15
Rev YoY
-9.5%
EPS YoY
-11.9%
Gross Margin
+40.9%
Op Margin
+36.8%
Net Debt
$2.83B
Current Ratio
3.20
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data