AI Stock Memo: TXRH - Texas Roadhouse - RankAlpha

TXRH

Rating buyAI Memo

Texas Roadhouse

As of 2026-02-20/Confidence high

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst target revisions (recent Stephens note) • 2026-02-20

Expected move: +15%

Biggest risk

Traffic deterioration and persistent wage/commodity inflation compress margins and force conservative guidance, pushing valuation toward sell‑side lows (target: $155.00).

Invalidation

Break below $155 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained comp recovery, effective cost control, and successful unit openings drive multiple expansion toward sell‑side highs (target: $235.00).

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

high

As of

2026-02-20

Base target

$196

p=55%

Bull target

$235

p=25%

Bear target

$155

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings release
Unit expansion and margin recovery
Sustained comp recovery, effective cost control, and successful unit openings drive multiple expansion toward sell‑side highs (target: $235.00).

BearKey bullets

Food commodity price volatility
Franchise/expansion execution delays
Traffic slowdown / weaker consumer dining-out demand

WatchKey bullets

Analyst target revisions (recent Stephens note)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $196 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +37% / -9%

Vs latest close: Bull +37% · Base +15% · Bear -9%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $235 (p=25%)Base Target: $196 (p=55%)Bear Target: $155 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sell-side median (~196.26) supports a modestly constructive base case (55% probability). A smaller subset of high-side estimates (~235) assumes successful execution and capital returns (25% probability), while downside to ~155 (20% probability) reflects traffic/margin deterioration. Recent broker notes are mixed-to-constructive; market focus remains on sustaining comps and margin recovery.

As of 2026-02-20 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Sustained comp recovery, effective cost control, and successful unit openings drive multiple expansion toward sell‑side highs (target: $235.00).

Bear Case

Traffic deterioration and persistent wage/commodity inflation compress margins and force conservative guidance, pushing valuation toward sell‑side lows (target: $155.00).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings release
Unit expansion and margin recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-20Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$196.26

Range (USD)

$155.00 - $235.00

Count

Query: Texas Roadhouse Inc Common (TXRH) analyst consensus price target high low average

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
FY25. 0. 500M. 1B. 2B. View More. Analyst Insights: TXRH. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 155.00 Low. 196.85 Average. 182.53 Current. 228.00 High. Analyst ...
Open source
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Stock Forecast, Price Targets ...
Search result #2
The average price target is $193.40 with a high forecast of $220.00 and a low forecast of $155.00. The average price target represents a 5.96% change from the ...
Extracted: $193.40, $220.00, $155.00Open source
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #3
According to projections from 26 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Texas Roadhouse is 196.85, with a high estimate of 228 and a low estimate of ...
Open source
Texas Roadhouse, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
Spread / Average Target. +5.32%. High Price Target. 228.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +21.99%. Low Price Target. 155.00USD. Spread / Lowest Target. -17.07% ...
Extracted: $228.00, $155.00Open source
Stephens Increases Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ:TXRH) Price ...
Search result #5
Stephens boosted their price target on Texas Roadhouse from $168.00 to $180.00 and gave the company an "equal weight" rating in a report on ...
Extracted: $168.00, $180.00Open source3 hours ago
Texas Roadhouse Inc. Analyst Estimates - TXRH - MarketWatch
Search result #6
Stock Price Targets. High, $228.00. Median, $197.50. Low, $155.00. Average, $196.42. Current Price, $180.90. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. TXRH will report 2025 ...
Extracted: $228.00, $197.50, $155.00, $196.42, $180.90Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$235 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$196 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$155 / p=20% prob

Price $171 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +37% · Base +15% · Bear -9%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-20
Analyst target revisions (recent Stephens note)
Ongoing analyst updates (e.g., Stephens raise to $180) can compress/expand short-term sentiment and liquidity [#SERP-5].
Prob 60.00% • Move 3.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings release
2026-05-21
Next quarterly report will reveal same-store sales, margin mix, and guide FY outlook — likely driver of near-term re-rating [#SERP-6].
Prob 70% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Unit expansion and margin recovery
2027-02-20
Sustained unit growth and operating leverage over the next 12 months could materially lift valuation vs peers; timing uncertain, assuming gradual execution [#SERP-2].
Prob 35% • Move 25% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Food commodity price volatility
Franchise/expansion execution delays
Traffic slowdown / weaker consumer dining-out demand
Wage inflation and higher labor costs

Peers

Symbol	Summary
DRI	Full-service casual-dining operator with diversified brands; large-cap peer for strategy and unit economics comparison.
CAKE	Casual-dining chain exposed to similar traffic and margin pressures; useful comp for same-store sales trends.
BLMN	Multi-brand casual operator with heavier franchise mix; comparable for franchise vs corporate margin dynamics.
BJRI	Mid-sized casual operator with emphasis on value and service; comparable execution risk profile.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Texas Roadhouse Inc Common (TXRH) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-20