AI Stock Memo: CBRL - Cracker Barrel Old Country Store - RankAlpha

CBRL

AI Memo

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store

As of 2025-12-09/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2025-12-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Upcoming quarterly earnings release (FY2025 Q3/Q4 timing) • 2025-12-18

Expected move: -20%

Biggest risk

Bear case: persistent commodity inflation and weaker traffic compress margins and guide lower, causing multiple contraction and sales misses.

Invalidation

Break below $20 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: management sustains margin recovery, same-store sales beat assisted by holiday demand and retail mix; buybacks continue, driving EPS and multiple expansion.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2025-12-09

Base target

$28

p=55%

Bull target

$34

p=25%

Bear target

$20

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Food/commodity cost pressure and margin sensitivity
Holiday/seasonal sales uplift and gift-card mix
Bull case: management sustains margin recovery, same-store sales beat assisted by holiday demand and retail mix; buybacks continue, driving EPS and multiple expansion.

BearKey bullets

Bear case: persistent commodity inflation and weaker traffic compress margins and guide lower, causing multiple contraction and sales misses.

WatchKey bullets

Upcoming quarterly earnings release (FY2025 Q3/Q4 timing)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $28 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: -1% / -42%

Vs latest close: Bull -1% · Base -20% · Bear -42%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $34 (p=25%)Base Target: $28 (p=55%)Bear Target: $20 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is mixed-to-cautious: filings stress cost pressure while investor materials flag holiday upside. Near-term sentiment leans negative on inflation risk but allows tactical upside if holiday/retail results beat.

As of 2025-12-09 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case: management sustains margin recovery, same-store sales beat assisted by holiday demand and retail mix; buybacks continue, driving EPS and multiple expansion.

Bear Case

Bear case: persistent commodity inflation and weaker traffic compress margins and guide lower, causing multiple contraction and sales misses.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Food/commodity cost pressure and margin sensitivity
Holiday/seasonal sales uplift and gift-card mix

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$34 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$20 / p=20% prob

Price $34 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -1% · Base -20% · Bear -42%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2025-12-18
Upcoming quarterly earnings release (FY2025 Q3/Q4 timing)
Quarterly earnings report that will show comps, margins, and guidance; market reaction likely if same-store sales or guidance diverge from expectations [#10Q-2025-10-02].
Prob 85.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 40.00%
EVENT2026-01-31
Share repurchase / capital allocation announcement
Cracker Barrel has historically returned capital; a new repurchase authorization or acceleration could be a positive catalyst for buyback-sensitive multiple [#10Q-2025-10-02].
Prob 40.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Food/commodity cost pressure and margin sensitivity
2026-03-31
Input-cost volatility (dairy, protein) can compress restaurant margins quickly; prior 10-Q highlights cost/margin sensitivity and management commentary [#10Q-2025-10-02].
Prob 70% • Move -8% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Holiday/seasonal sales uplift and gift-card mix
2025-12-31
Holiday period can boost traffic and ancillary retail (gifts), supporting revenue and EPS upside vs. weak comps; retailer commentary and historical seasonality noted in investor materials [#IR-2025-holiday].
Prob 60% • Move 7% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

No risks

Peers

Symbol	Summary
DRI	Darden — larger diversified full-service operator; similar exposure to casual dining trends and cost pressures; useful comp for management execution and commodity hedging.
BGS	B&G Foods — packaged foods/retail exposure; not a direct restaurant peer but useful for retail/grocery-sourced sales and food-cost trends.
DIN	Dine Brands — similar franchise/brand management dynamics and sensitivity to guest traffic and same-store sales trends.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Analysis date: 2025-12-09