TSBK

Rating buyAI Memo

Timberland Bancorp

As of 2026-01-16/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

New analyst coverage or published price targets • 2026-03-31

Base target: $35 / p=60% prob

Biggest risk

Prolonged deposit outflows or unexpected credit losses force higher provisions and multiple compression, pushing the stock toward the bear target (25.0).

Invalidation

Break below $25 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained NIM expansion, stable deposits, and successful capital actions drive EPS growth and multiple expansion toward regional peers, supporting the bull target (45.0).

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-16

Base target

$35

p=60%

Bull target

$45

p=20%

Bear target

$25

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4 / FY2025 Earnings Release
Sustained NIM improvement from higher rates
Sustained NIM expansion, stable deposits, and successful capital actions drive EPS growth and multiple expansion toward regional peers, supporting the bull target (45.0).

BearKey bullets

Deposit outflows from local competition or rate moves
Deterioration in commercial real-estate or CRE loan book
Regulatory enforcement or capital pressure

WatchKey bullets

New analyst coverage or published price targets

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $35 (p=60%)

Target spread vs base: +29% / -29%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $45 (p=20%)Base Target: $35 (p=60%)Bear Target: $25 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market interest appears limited with few formal analyst targets, producing episodic volatility when events occur [#SERP-8]. Aggregator pages show mixed coverage and occasional confusion with similarly named banks, underscoring low coverage liquidity risk [#SERP-1][#SERP-5]. Overall tone is cautiously constructive but thinly followed.

As of 2026-01-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Sustained NIM expansion, stable deposits, and successful capital actions drive EPS growth and multiple expansion toward regional peers, supporting the bull target (45.0).

Bear Case

Prolonged deposit outflows or unexpected credit losses force higher provisions and multiple compression, pushing the stock toward the bear target (25.0).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4 / FY2025 Earnings Release
Sustained NIM improvement from higher rates

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-16Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$35.85

Range (USD)

$9.58 - $77.00

Count

Query: Timberland Bancorp Inc Common (TSBK) analyst consensus price target high low average

Timberland Bancorp (TSBK) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #1
TSBK's current price target is $0.00. Learn why top analysts are making this stock forecast for Timberland Bancorp at MarketBeat.
Open source
Timberland (TSBK) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #2
Our Timberland Bancorp Inc stock forecast data is based on consensus analyst prediction, covering public companies earnings per share and revenue.
Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for The Bancorp (TBBK)
Search result #3
The forecasts for The Bancorp, Inc. (TBBK) range from a low of $76 to a high of $77. The average price target represents a increase of $9.58 from the last ...
Extracted: $76.00, $77.00, $9.58Open source
Bancorp (TBBK) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price ...
Search result #4
Financial analysts have set a price target of $70.50, indicating a 0.00% increase from the current stock price, but ratings and forecasts are frequently updated ...
Extracted: $70.50Open source
Timberland Bancorp (TSBK) Stock Price, News & Analysis
Search result #5
Timberland Bancorp has received a consensus rating of Buy. The company's average rating score is 3.00, and is based on no strong buy ratings, 1 buy rating, no ...
Open source
TBBK Stock Forecast 2026 - Bancorp Inc Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #6
Based on our analysis of 7 Wall Street analysts, TBBK has a neutral consensus with a median price target of $76.50 (ranging from $76.00 to $77.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $76.50, $76.00, $77.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$45 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$35 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$25 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-01-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-31
New analyst coverage or published price targets
Publication of formal analyst price targets or coverage (currently sparse) could re-rate the name; assumption: window end used where only a general timing expectation exists [#SERP-8][#SERP-1].
Prob 30.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 10.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4 / FY2025 Earnings Release
2026-04-16
Quarterly results and management commentary on net interest margin and loan loss provisioning could move the stock; lack of broad analyst coverage increases event sensitivity [#SERP-5][#SERP-8].
Prob 55% • Move 8% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Sustained NIM improvement from higher rates
2027-01-16
If the regional bank can sustain asset repricing and control funding costs, longer-term NIM expansion could materially lift earnings and valuation; macro sensitivity noted in consensus summaries [#SERP-2].
Prob 40% • Move 25% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Deposit outflows from local competition or rate moves
Deterioration in commercial real-estate or CRE loan book
Regulatory enforcement or capital pressure

Peers

Symbol	Summary
TBBK	Regional competitor with similar product mix; useful as a coverage/comparison reference given greater analyst attention.
FFBC	Mid-sized regional bank often serving comparable markets; helpful for qualitative funding and credit-cycle comparisons.
BPOP	Larger regional with diversified franchise; serves as a read-through for deposit dynamics and fee income trends.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Timberland Bancorp Inc Common (TSBK) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-16

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Symbol

Summary

TBBK

Regional competitor with similar product mix; useful as a coverage/comparison reference given greater analyst attention.

FFBC

Mid-sized regional bank often serving comparable markets; helpful for qualitative funding and credit-cycle comparisons.

BPOP

Larger regional with diversified franchise; serves as a read-through for deposit dynamics and fee income trends.