AI Stock Memo: BPOP - Popular - RankAlpha

BPOP

AI Memo

Popular

As of 2026-01-28/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q4 / FY2025 earnings release • 2026-04-28

Expected move: -9%

Biggest risk

Material credit deterioration, sustained deposit outflows, or funding-cost shocks compress NIMs and multiples, driving the stock toward the bear target (118.0).

Invalidation

Break below $118 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Execution preserves NIMs, loans accelerate in core Puerto Rico/Caribbean markets, and management signals capital returns — re-rating pushes the stock toward the bull target (155.0).

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-28

Base target

$134

p=60%

Bull target

$155

p=20%

Bear target

$118

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4 / FY2025 earnings release
Analyst target revisions / consensus update
Puerto Rico / credit-cycle and NIM direction

BearKey bullets

Deposit outflows or funding-cost shock
Loan portfolio deterioration in Puerto Rico/Caribbean
Margin compression from an adverse interest-rate path or competition

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 130.6, "timestamp_utc": "2026-01-27T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Base target (134.0) is near the analyst median and implies limited near-term upside (~+2.6% vs anchor).

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $134 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +5% / -20%

Vs latest close: Bull +5% · Base -9% · Bear -20%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $155 (p=20%)Base Target: $134 (p=60%)Bear Target: $118 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus median (~$134) sits modestly above the anchor; upside is limited absent positive earnings or capital-return news. Short-term sentiment will hinge on results, reserve commentary, and any guidance or buyback updates.

As of 2026-01-28 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Execution preserves NIMs, loans accelerate in core Puerto Rico/Caribbean markets, and management signals capital returns — re-rating pushes the stock toward the bull target (155.0).

Bear Case

Material credit deterioration, sustained deposit outflows, or funding-cost shocks compress NIMs and multiples, driving the stock toward the bear target (118.0).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4 / FY2025 earnings release
Analyst target revisions / consensus update
Puerto Rico / credit-cycle and NIM direction

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-28Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$134.00

Range (USD)

$116.75 - $160.00

Count

Query: Popular Inc Common (BPOP) analyst consensus price target high low average

Popular (BPOP) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 10 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Popular is 145.70, with a high estimate of 160 and a low estimate of 135.
Open source
Popular, Inc. (BPOP) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
Find the latest Popular, Inc. (BPOP) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source
Popular, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #3
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 10 ; Last Close Price. 122.87USD ; Average target price. 145.70USD ; Spread / Average Target. +18.58%.
Extracted: $122.87, $145.70Open source
BPOP | Popular Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #4
N/A. Stock Price Targets. High, $160.00. Median, $144.00. Low, $127.00. Average, $143.33. Current Price, $125.96. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. BPOP will report ...
Extracted: $160.00, $144.00, $127.00, $143.33, $125.96Open source
Popular Inc (BPOP) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ... - TipRanks
Search result #5
The average price target is $144.29 with a high forecast of $160.00 and a low forecast of $135.00. The average price target represents a 15.46% change from the ...
Extracted: $144.29, $160.00, $135.00Open source
Popular, Inc. (BPOP) Stock Price, Quote, News & Analysis
Search result #6
Wall Street analysts rate BPOP as Bullish on average, for a Wall Street consensus of buy. View BPOP's ratings here. What is Popular, Inc.'s stock price today?
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$155 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$134 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$118 / p=20% prob

Price $148 as of 2026-06-01

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +5% · Base -9% · Bear -20%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4 / FY2025 earnings release
2026-04-28
Quarterly results and management commentary that typically drive re-pricing; analysts refresh 12-month targets around earnings windows [#SERP-4], [#SERP-1].
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 40%
Analyst target revisions / consensus update
2026-04-28
Street 12-month consensus (mean/median) is actively tracked; revisions around results or guidance can move the stock toward the consensus range [#SERP-1], [#SERP-3].
Prob 50% • Move 8% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Puerto Rico / credit-cycle and NIM direction
2027-01-28
Regional economic trends and loan-loss provisioning in Puerto Rico/Caribbean and interest-rate path that materially affect earnings and valuation over the next year [#SERP-9].
Prob 40% • Move 12% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Deposit outflows or funding-cost shock
Loan portfolio deterioration in Puerto Rico/Caribbean
Margin compression from an adverse interest-rate path or competition
Regulatory or capital-pressure events

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PNC	Large regional bank with diversified U.S. footprint — useful comparison for funding/margin trends.
MTB	Regional commercial bank with similar business mix in commercial lending and deposit franchises.
ZION	Regional bank exposure to U.S. regional markets; compares on credit/capital sensitivity.
FBP	Puerto Rico-focused competitor; direct local-market comparison for credit and deposit dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Popular Inc Common (BPOP) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-28