FBP

AI Memo

First BanCorp

As of 2026-02-07/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 Earnings Release • 2026-05-08

Expected move: +1%

Biggest risk

Bear case: renewed loan-loss pressure or deposit outflows that force higher provisions and compress multiples toward recent lows.

Invalidation

Break below $21 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: stronger-than-expected loan performance in Puerto Rico, margin expansion, and upward analyst revisions pushing the stock toward the high end of published targets.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-07

Base target

$24

p=60%

Bull target

$26

p=20%

Bear target

$21

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 Earnings Release
Analyst Target Revisions / Consensus Repricing
Puerto Rico credit-cycle / loan-loss improvement

BearKey bullets

Deposit outflows or sudden funding-cost spike
Loan-loss reserves materially exceed expectations
Puerto Rico fiscal or macro shock

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 23.22, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-06T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Targets derived relative to the authoritative anchor above; base_target (24.19) closely tracks the analyst median (24.185) while bull_target (26.25) sits near the published analyst high and bear_target (20.89) equals the published analyst low.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $24 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +9% / -13%

Vs latest close: Bull +9% · Base +1% · Bear -13%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $26 (p=20%)Base Target: $24 (p=60%)Bear Target: $21 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus implies limited upside: base target $24.19 (~4% above the anchor) with tight dispersion to $20.89–$26.25. Market tone is cautiously constructive and focused on Puerto Rico credit trends and deposit stability; near-term upside depends on improving loan metrics or capital actions.

As of 2026-02-07 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case: stronger-than-expected loan performance in Puerto Rico, margin expansion, and upward analyst revisions pushing the stock toward the high end of published targets.

Bear Case

Bear case: renewed loan-loss pressure or deposit outflows that force higher provisions and compress multiples toward recent lows.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 Earnings Release
Analyst Target Revisions / Consensus Repricing
Puerto Rico credit-cycle / loan-loss improvement

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-07Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$24.19

Range (USD)

$20.89 - $26.25

Count

Query: First BanCorp Common (FBP) analyst consensus price target high low average

First Bancorp (FBP) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 6 analysts, the average 12-month price target for First Bancorp is 24.16667, with a high estimate of 25 and a low estimate of 23.
Open source
First BanCorp. (FBP) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #2
According to the 6 analysts' twelve-month price targets for First BanCorp., the average price target is $24.58. The highest price target for FBP is $26.00, ...
Extracted: $24.58, $26.00Open source
First Bancorp (FBP) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings ...
Search result #3
4 analysts have given First Bancorp (FBP) a consensus rating of Buy while the First Bancorp (FBP) price prediction in 2026 is $24.12.
Extracted: $24.12Open source
First BanCorp. (FBP) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts
Search result #4
See First BanCorp. (FBP) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source
First Bancorp (FBP) Price Targets
Search result #5
The forecasts range from a low of $23.00 to a high of $26.00. The average price target represents an increase of 10.66% from the last closing price of $22.14.
Extracted: $23.00, $26.00, $22.14Open source
First BanCorp.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #6
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 7 ; Last Close Price. 20.89USD ; Average target price. 24.00USD ; Spread / Average Target. +14.89%.
Extracted: $20.89, $24.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$26 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$24 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$21 / p=20% prob

Price $24 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +9% · Base +1% · Bear -13%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 Earnings Release
2026-05-08
Regular quarterly earnings may reprice the stock vs. consensus estimates and loan-loss guidance; analysts' 12-month targets provide a nearby reference point [#SERP-2].
Prob 75% • Move 6% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Analyst Target Revisions / Consensus Repricing
2027-02-07
Analyst revisions driven by earnings, credit trends, or macro outlook could push consensus toward the current median/high range cited in market summaries [#SERP-1] [#SERP-8].
Prob 40% • Move 8% • Priced-in 50%
Puerto Rico credit-cycle / loan-loss improvement
2027-02-07
Material improvement or deterioration in regional economic conditions and NPL trends would alter valuation materially; local-credit recovery would be positive for net interest margin and reserves [#SERP-5].
Prob 35% • Move 12% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Deposit outflows or sudden funding-cost spike
Loan-loss reserves materially exceed expectations
Puerto Rico fiscal or macro shock

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BPOP	Popular, Inc. — Direct Puerto Rico lender; comparable credit exposure, deposit base, and loan-loss sensitivity.
SAN	Santander (ADS) — Large Iberia/LatAm universal bank; useful for cross-border retail/treasury exposure and capital-management comparisons.
KEY	KeyCorp — U.S. regional comparator for NIM trends and provision-cycle sensitivity in consumer and commercial portfolios.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: First BanCorp Common (FBP) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-07

AI Stock Memo: FBP - First BanCorp - RankAlpha