AI Stock Memo: CVBF - CVB Financial - RankAlpha

CVBF

Rating buyAI Memo

CVB Financial

As of 2026-02-07/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst target revisions / consensus update • 2026-05-08

Expected move: +6%

Biggest risk

Bear case: NIM compression, deposit pressure, or credit stress forces multiple compression and downgrades; targets fall toward the low analyst estimates (~$17).

Invalidation

Break below $17 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: NIM recovery and stronger-than-expected loan growth drive EPS beats; investor re-rating towards the upper analyst range (~$26) as risk premium shrinks.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-07

Base target

$22

p=60%

Bull target

$26

p=20%

Bear target

$17

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings (estimated Q1 2026)
Interest-rate / NIM normalization and loan growth
Bull case: NIM recovery and stronger-than-expected loan growth drive EPS beats; investor re-rating towards the upper analyst range (~$26) as risk premium shrinks.

BearKey bullets

Analyst downgrades or target cuts following an in-line or weak quarter
Material deterioration in commercial real-estate or CRE loan performance
NIM compression from rapid deposit repricing

WatchKey bullets

Analyst target revisions / consensus update

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $22 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +25% / -18%

Vs latest close: Bull +25% · Base +6% · Bear -18%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $26 (p=20%)Base Target: $22 (p=60%)Bear Target: $17 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is neutral-to-cautious: consensus analyst targets cluster around the low‑mid $20s with pockets of downside (Wedbush at $17) and upside to $26 [#SERP-1][#SERP-2]. Recent headlines and sentiment show modest upside expectations but that view is fragile ahead of results [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-02-07 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case: NIM recovery and stronger-than-expected loan growth drive EPS beats; investor re-rating towards the upper analyst range (~$26) as risk premium shrinks.

Bear Case

Bear case: NIM compression, deposit pressure, or credit stress forces multiple compression and downgrades; targets fall toward the low analyst estimates (~$17).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings (estimated Q1 2026)
Interest-rate / NIM normalization and loan growth

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-07Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$22.00

Range (USD)

$17.00 - $26.00

Count

Query: CVB Financial Corp Common (CVBF) analyst consensus price target high low average

CVB Financial (CVBF) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #1
According to the 4 analysts' twelve-month price targets for CVB Financial, the average price target is $24.17. The highest price target for CVBF is $26.00, ...
Extracted: $24.17, $26.00Open source
CVB Financial Corp.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #2
Wedbush Trims CVB Financial's PT to $17 From $18 After In Line Quarter, Keeps Neutral Rating; Says Outlook Appropriately Reflected in Premium Valuation.
Extracted: $17.00, $18.00Open source
CVB Financial Corp. (CVBF) Stock Price, News, Quote & ...
Search result #3
CVB FINANCIAL CORP has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of $21.000000; an Industry Subrating of High; a Management Subrating of Low; ...
Extracted: $21.00Open source23 hours ago
CVB Financial (CVBF) Stock Forecast - Public Investing
Search result #4
3 analysts have given CVB Financial (CVBF) a consensus rating of Buy while the CVB Financial (CVBF) price prediction in 2026 is $24.17.
Extracted: $24.17Open source
Cvb Financial Corp. (CVBF) Stock Forecast, Price Targets ...
Search result #5
The average price target is $24.17 with a high forecast of $26.00 and a low forecast of $22.50. The average price target represents a 22.61% change from the ...
Extracted: $24.17, $26.00, $22.50Open source
CVBF Stock Forecast 2026 - CVB Financial Price Targets & ...
Search result #6
Based on our analysis of 8 Wall Street analysts, CVBF has a neutral consensus with a median price target of $22.50 (ranging from $22.00 to $24.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $22.50, $22.00, $24.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$26 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$22 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=20% prob

Price $21 as of 2026-06-09

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +25% · Base +6% · Bear -18%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-08
Analyst target revisions / consensus update
12-month analyst price-target revisions (consensus currently near $24.17–$22 median); updates often occur within a quarter after results and can re-rate the stock [#SERP-1][#SERP-5]. Date estimated at quarter end.
Prob 60.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings (estimated Q1 2026)
2026-05-08
Estimated Q1 2026 earnings release (date not disclosed; assumed within next quarter). Results and NIM commentary typically drive >~8% intraday moves for regionals [#SERP-3].
Prob 85% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Interest-rate / NIM normalization and loan growth
2027-02-07
Over a 12‑month horizon, normalization of net interest margins and sustained loan growth could materially improve earnings power and re-rate regional bank multiples [#SERP-2]. Date set one year forward per conservative assumption.
Prob 50% • Move 15% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Analyst downgrades or target cuts following an in-line or weak quarter
Material deterioration in commercial real-estate or CRE loan performance
NIM compression from rapid deposit repricing

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ZION	Regional bank with similar loan-dependent revenue profile and interest-rate sensitivity.
PNC	Large regional bank; comparable exposure to commercial lending and deposit/liability mix trends.
KEY	Regional franchise focused on consumer and commercial banking; useful operational comparator for margin and credit cycles.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: CVB Financial Corp Common (CVBF) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-07