AI Stock Memo: FFBC - First Financial Bancorp - RankAlpha

FFBC

AI Memo

First Financial Bancorp

As of 2026-01-29/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q4 2025 earnings release • 2026-02-28

Expected move: -19%

Biggest risk

NIM compression, higher‑than‑expected loan loss provisions (especially CRE exposure) or deposit outflows drive re‑rating and push the share toward the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $24 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Stronger‑than‑expected NIM expansion and controlled credit costs push multiples toward regional peers; successful execution of revenue initiatives and any accretive M&A could reach the bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-29

Base target

$28

p=60%

Bull target

$32

p=20%

Bear target

$24

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Fed rate/path impact on net interest margin
Regional consolidation / strategic M&A optionality
Stronger‑than‑expected NIM expansion and controlled credit costs push multiples toward regional peers; successful execution of revenue initiatives and any accretive M&A could reach the bull target.

BearKey bullets

Elevated credit losses from commercial real estate
Large uninsured deposit runoff or funding stress
Net interest margin compression

WatchKey bullets

Q4 2025 earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $28 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: -7% / -30%

Vs latest close: Bull -7% · Base -19% · Bear -30%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $32 (p=20%)Base Target: $28 (p=60%)Bear Target: $24 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is mildly constructive: analyst targets cluster around $28–$30, implying modest upside relative to the anchor but limited near-term conviction [#SERP-1][#SERP-5]. Key drivers are NIM trajectory and deposit stability; upcoming quarterly guidance and Fed messaging will determine near-term sentiment. Overall posture: cautiously positive with moderate conviction.

As of 2026-01-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

NIM compression, higher‑than‑expected loan loss provisions (especially CRE exposure) or deposit outflows drive re‑rating and push the share toward the bear target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Fed rate/path impact on net interest margin
Regional consolidation / strategic M&A optionality

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-29Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$28.00

Range (USD)

$26.77 - $32.00

Count

Query: First Financial Bancorp. Common (FFBC) analyst consensus price target high low average

First Financial Bancorp (FFBC) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 6 analysts, the average 12-month price target for First Financial Bancorp is 30.00, with a high estimate of 32 and a low estimate ...
Open source
First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC) Stock Price, News, Quote & ...
Search result #2
FIRST FINANCIAL BANCORP has an Investment Rating of BUY; a target price of $28.000000; an Industry Subrating of High; a Management Subrating of Medium; a Safety ...
Extracted: $28.00Open source
First Financial Bancorp (FFBC) Price Targets
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $28.00 to a high of $32.00. The average price target represents an increase of 9.93% from the last closing price of $27.29.
Extracted: $28.00, $32.00, $27.29Open source
First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC) Stock Forecast, Price ...
Search result #4
The average price target is $29.00 with a high forecast of $31.00 and a low forecast of $28.00. The average price target represents a 5.38% change from the last ...
Extracted: $29.00, $31.00, $28.00Open source
First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC) Stock Price, News & Analysis
Search result #5
Price Target and Rating. Average Price Target for First Financial Bancorp. $29.50. High Price Target: $32.00. Low Price Target: $28.00. Potential Upside/ ...
Extracted: $29.50, $32.00, $28.00Open source
Consensus First Financial Bancorp. - FFBC - MarketScreener
Search result #6
Spread / Average Target. +11.77%. High Price Target. 32.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +19.23%. Low Price Target. 28.00USD. Spread / Lowest Target. +4.32% ...
Extracted: $32.00, $28.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$32 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$24 / p=20% prob

Price $34 as of 2026-07-10

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 7%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -7% · Base -19% · Bear -30%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-28
Q4 2025 earnings release
Quarterly results and management commentary will re‑set guidance for NIM, loan growth and credit costs; assumed release window end used for date [#SERP-2].
Prob 70.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Fed rate/path impact on net interest margin
2026-04-29
Ongoing Fed decisions and short‑term rate expectations should drive NIM volatility for regional banks and influence forward guidance [#SERP-6], [#SERP-2].
Prob 50% • Move 6% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Regional consolidation / strategic M&A optionality
2027-01-29
Potential for consolidation or strategic bolt‑ons in the regional bank sector that could re‑rate franchise multiple over a longer horizon; low probability but high impact [#SERP-1].
Prob 25% • Move 20% • Priced-in 15%

Risks

Elevated credit losses from commercial real estate
Large uninsured deposit runoff or funding stress
Net interest margin compression
Regulatory changes or adverse macro shock

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ZION	Regional bank with comparable commercial lending exposure and sensitivity to NIM trends.
HBAN	Large regional retail/commercial footprint; similar interest‑rate and credit cycle exposure.
RF	Broad regional franchise; useful comparandum for credit performance and deposit stability.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: First Financial Bancorp. Common (FFBC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-29