AI Stock Memo: FHB - First Hawaiian - RankAlpha

FHB

AI Memo

First Hawaiian

As of 2026-01-10/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings (estimated window) • 2026-04-10

Expected move: -1%

Biggest risk

Tourism slowdown or credit deterioration compresses NIMs and raises provisions, pushing the stock toward low-$20s.

Invalidation

Break below $24 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Modest upside: sustained tourism recovery, stable NIMs, and modest credit improvement could lift shares into the high-$20s; upside is limited relative to anchor and requires execution.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-10

Base target

$28

p=60%

Bull target

$29

p=20%

Bear target

$24

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst target revisions and narrow consensus upside
Regional loan growth and tourism recovery impact
Modest upside: sustained tourism recovery, stable NIMs, and modest credit improvement could lift shares into the high-$20s; upside is limited relative to anchor and requires execution.

BearKey bullets

Rising credit losses in commercial real estate or hospitality exposure
Tourism slowdown reducing loan demand and fee income
Unexpected NIM compression from deposit competition or rate shifts

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings (estimated window)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $28 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +4% / -14%

Vs latest close: Bull +4% · Base -1% · Bear -14%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $29 (p=20%)Base Target: $28 (p=60%)Bear Target: $24 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is neutral-to-slightly-positive: aggregated analyst targets cluster near $27–$28, implying modest upside from the anchor and limited conviction absent clearer margin or capital improvements.

As of 2026-01-10 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Modest upside: sustained tourism recovery, stable NIMs, and modest credit improvement could lift shares into the high-$20s; upside is limited relative to anchor and requires execution.

Bear Case

Tourism slowdown or credit deterioration compresses NIMs and raises provisions, pushing the stock toward low-$20s.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst target revisions and narrow consensus upside
Regional loan growth and tourism recovery impact

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-10Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$27.66

Range (USD)

$24.00 - $30.45

Count

Query: First Hawaiian Inc Common (FHB) analyst consensus price target high low average

First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHB) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
0 Low. Sector Avg. 100 High. Research Reports: FHB. View More. Raising target price to $28.00. FIRST HAWAIIAN INC has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target ...
Extracted: $28.00Open source
First Hawaiian Inc (FHB) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ...
Search result #2
The average price target is $27.50 with a high forecast of $29.00 and a low forecast of $24.00. The average price target represents a 4.64% change from the last ...
Extracted: $27.50, $29.00, $24.00Open source
First Hawaiian Inc Consensus Estimates (FHB)
Search result #3
First Hawaiian has a potential Upside of +7.78%, based on analysts' average price target. How Has First Hawaiian Stock Performed Over the Past 52 Weeks?
Open source
First Hawaiian (FHB) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #4
According to the 10 analysts' twelve-month price targets for First Hawaiian, the average price target is $27.64. The highest price target for FHB is $29.00, ...
Extracted: $27.64, $29.00Open source
First Hawaiian, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #5
Average target price. 27.67USD. Spread / Average Target. +7.78%. High Price Target. 29.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +12.97%. Low Price Target. 24.00USD.
Extracted: $27.67, $29.00, $24.00Open source
FIRST HAWAIIAN INC (FHB) Stock Price, Forecast & Analysis
Search result #6
The current stock price of FHB is 26.06 USD. In the past month the price increased by 3.54%. In the past year, price increased by 0.42%.
Extracted: $26.06Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$29 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$24 / p=20% prob

Price $28 as of 2026-06-10

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +4% · Base -1% · Bear -14%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-10
Quarterly earnings (estimated window)
Next quarterly results (date estimated) could drive volatility via NIM, loan-loss provisions, and tourism-linked net interest income; use conservative window-end estimate for planning.
Prob 55.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst target revisions and narrow consensus upside
2026-04-10
Near-term analyst revisions cluster near $27.5–$28.0; modest upgrades could move the stock within the next quarter. Range is tight, so impact is likely limited absent material earnings surprises.
Prob 60% • Move 5% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Regional loan growth and tourism recovery impact
2027-01-10
Over 12 months, sustained tourism recovery and loan-demand improvements could re-rate multiples, while adverse trends could weigh on earnings; outcome depends on NIM and credit trends.
Prob 40% • Move 15% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Rising credit losses in commercial real estate or hospitality exposure
Tourism slowdown reducing loan demand and fee income
Unexpected NIM compression from deposit competition or rate shifts

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BOH	Direct Hawaiian-market competitor with similar local deposit and lending exposures.
ZION	Regional bank with comparable sensitivity to loan growth and regional economic cycles.
USB	Larger regional/national bank used as a reference for funding mix and interest-rate sensitivity.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: First Hawaiian Inc Common (FHB) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-10