AI Stock Memo: SUPV - Grupo Supervielle - RankAlpha

SUPV

Rating neutralAI Memo

Grupo Supervielle

As of 2026-06-20/Confidence low

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-06-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

low

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Form 20-F filing reduces disclosure friction but is mostly digested • 2026-07-31

Expected move: +8%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that recovery remains early and fragile: reported net loss was still AR$17.1 billion, NPLs were 5.6% versus 5.0% at December-end, loans fell 5.6% sequentially, and deposits fell 4.7% as the company actively reduced costly funding, so a clean earnings rebound is not yet proven [#IR-2026-05-06].

Invalidation

Break below $9 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The most credible bull case is that 1Q26 was a transitional quarter rather than a new deterioration phase: management reported lower sequential losses, sharply lower provisions, positive March underlying earnings, and stable CET1 at 15.4%, which supports a recovery-in-progress interpretation [#IR-2026-05-06].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

low

As of

2026-06-20

Base target

$12

p=45%

Bull target

$15

p=25%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Credit-cost easing and March earnings inflection need to hold
Digital shift and IOL ecosystem could improve mix and efficiency
The most credible bull case is that 1Q26 was a transitional quarter rather than a new deterioration phase: management reported lower sequential losses, sharply lower provisions, positive March underlying earnings, and stable CET1 at 15.4%, which supports a recovery-in-progress interpretation [#IR-2026-05-06].

BearKey bullets

Asset quality is only stabilizing, not cleanly healed: NPL ratio ended 1Q26 at 5.6%, above 5.0% at December 2025, even with better March trends [#IR-2026-05-06].
External revision evidence is thin in the packet, so there is limited confirmation that the market has broadly upgraded forward estimates after the print.
Reported profitability is still negative after a AR$36.6 billion extraordinary personnel charge tied to headcount rightsizing [#IR-2026-05-06].

WatchKey bullets

Form 20-F filing reduces disclosure friction but is mostly digested

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

low

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $12 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +27% / -21%

Vs latest close: Bull +27% · Base +8% · Bear -21%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $15 (p=25%)Base Target: $12 (p=45%)Bear Target: $9 (p=30%)

Commentary

Recent coverage is dominated by the 1Q26 result and the 20-F filing, so buzz is present but narrow. The stored earnings snapshot described a mixed print: adjusted EPS beat a small Zacks consensus while revenue net of interest expense missed [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-26]. With no usable social packet and no clear analyst-revision trail in the evidence, this remains a monitoring setup rather than a strong sentiment breakout.

As of 2026-06-20 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Credit-cost easing and March earnings inflection need to hold
Digital shift and IOL ecosystem could improve mix and efficiency

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$15 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$9 / p=30% prob

Price $11 as of 2026-06-18

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 8%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +27% · Base +8% · Bear -21%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.08

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-31
Form 20-F filing reduces disclosure friction but is mostly digested
The company announced on April 8, 2026 that it filed its 2025 Form 20-F with the SEC, giving investors audited IFRS-without-exceptions financials and clearer comparability versus local reporting. This helps diligence and confidence, but it is more a support item than a standalone growth trigger at this point [#IR-2026-04-08].
Prob 35.00% • Move 3.00% • Priced-in 75.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Credit-cost easing and March earnings inflection need to hold
2026-09-30
1Q26 showed an underlying recovery setup despite the reported loss: adjusted net income was AR$6.7 billion, cost of risk eased to 6% from 10% in 4Q25, and management said underlying monthly earnings turned positive in March and extended into April. If those trends persist, the stock can re-rate from a transitional-loss narrative toward normalized earnings power [#IR-2026-05-06].
Prob 55% • Move 8% • Priced-in 45%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Digital shift and IOL ecosystem could improve mix and efficiency
2026-12-31
Management tied the restructuring to a structurally leaner distribution model, cited peak 13,000 new accounts in March for Cuenta Hit IOL, and said IOL assets under custody reached US$2.7 billion. If cross-sell and digital acquisition keep scaling, fee mix and operating leverage could improve beyond the current recovery phase [#IR-2026-05-06].
Prob 40% • Move 12% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Asset quality is only stabilizing, not cleanly healed: NPL ratio ended 1Q26 at 5.6%, above 5.0% at December 2025, even with better March trends [#IR-2026-05-06].
External revision evidence is thin in the packet, so there is limited confirmation that the market has broadly upgraded forward estimates after the print.
Reported profitability is still negative after a AR$36.6 billion extraordinary personnel charge tied to headcount rightsizing [#IR-2026-05-06].
Sequential loan and deposit contraction suggests management is prioritizing profitability and funding quality over growth, which can delay revenue recovery [#IR-2026-05-06].
The thesis is highly exposed to Argentina macro, rate-path, and reform execution; management itself framed the backdrop as only becoming more stable toward quarter-end [#IR-2026-05-06].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
HBT	Small-cap bank peer with closer market-cap fit; useful for comparing core credit and deposit execution, though SUPV has materially higher Argentina macro exposure and more volatile normalization dynamics.
CFFN	Another roughly similar-sized bank comp for profitability and funding-mix discipline, but geographic and rate-regime differences make it only a loose valuation reference.
CCB	Useful for size-based bank comparison, yet still a loose peer because SUPV’s recovery thesis depends more on Argentina credit normalization, restructuring, and brokerage/ecosystem monetization than on a plain regional-bank template.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-06-20